Parole for Thailand's Thaksin reflects rise of new threat to old guard

BANGKOK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The early release of Thailand's once-fugitive ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra represents to many a deal the influential billionaire made with his enemies to counter an even greater threat to the royalist-military establishment.

To some observers of Thailand's convoluted politics, Thaksin's parole after returning from self-imposed exile in August was the latest act in an elaborate effort to crush the hugely popular anti-establishment Move Forward party that finished first in last year's election.

Move Forward, which advocates institutional reforms including some involving the monarchy, was blocked from forming a government by a Senate appointed by a junta that seized power in 2014 coup against a government led by Thaksin's Pheu Thai party.

Three months later, Pheu Thai - which during the election campaign had shared Move Forward's platform of ending military dominance of politics - formed its own coalition government that included some of the very figures involved in the 2014 coup.

The same day, Thaksin, 74, flew back to Thailand on a private jet and surrendered to authorities on various criminal convictions in absentia. He complained of chest pains and was transferred to a police hospital, where he remained until Sunday, the first day he was eligible for parole.

"His comeback has to do with the deal he made with the establishment," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Thailand's Ubon Ratchathani University.

Reuters requests for comments on Monday went unanswered. Thaksin's family, party and Thai authorities all say there was no such quid pro quo. But many analysts are unconvinced.

One reason is that while Thaksin's p...
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