US military aid pause is a blow to Ukraine, but it can sustain war effort for now

Pavel Polityuk - Reuters - 04/03
Washington's suspension of military assistance could have a real impact on the war within months, undermining air defences and precision strike capabilities in particular.
  • U.S. military aid suspension another setback for Ukraine
  • However, Kyiv has become less reliant on U.S. weapons
  • Questions remain over other countries supplying U.S. arms
  • Fate of crucial U.S. intelligence sharing also unclear
  • Europe scrambling to back Ukraine as U.S. lurches towards Russia
KYIV, March 4 (Reuters) - Washington's suspension of military assistance will not lead to a sudden collapse of Ukraine's defensive lines, but it could have a real impact on the war within months, undermining air defences and precision strike capabilities in particular.
U.S. deliveries of military aid via Ukraine's western border halted at 3:30 a.m. (0130 GMT), a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, after U.S. President Donald Trump paused assistance late on Monday following an extraordinary clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week.
The move suspends any further drawdown from $3.85 billion of military aid approved by Congress that Trump inherited from his predecessor, Joe Biden. It also appears to halt deliveries of military equipment already approved by Biden.
"It's pretty significant, but not nearly as impactful as it would have been earlier in the war because Ukraine is far less dependent on direct U.S. military assistance now than it was previously," said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment.
"But it will definitely affect Ukraine, and the effect will become more pronounced after a couple of months as inventories become depleted," he told Reuters on Monday, shortly before the aid cut was announced.
In particular, Kyiv may now struggle to source replacements for sophisticated air defence systems used to repel regular Russian missile attacks, and precision weapons like the HIMARS missile system, which is one of Ukraine's main strike systems, with a range of 70-85 km (45-55 miles). Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the U.S. Patriot system was Ukraine's only defence against Russian ball...
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