US labor market seen holding steady ahead of tariffs turbulence

Lucia Mutikani - Reuters - 07/03
U.S. job growth likely picked up in February, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.0%, but growing uncertainty over trade policy and deep federal government spending cuts could erode the labor market's resilience in the months ahead.
  • Nonfarm payrolls forecast increasing 160,000 in February
  • Downside risk seen from winter storms, tariffs uncertainty
  • Unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 4.0%
  • Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3%; up 4.1% y/y
WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely picked up in February, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.0%, but growing uncertainty over trade policy and deep federal government spending cuts could erode the labor market's resilience in the months ahead.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday would be the first under President Donald Trump's watch. The Trump administration's fluid trade policy was making it hard for businesses to plan ahead, economists said.
Business and consumer confidence have plunged since January, erasing all the gains notched in the aftermath of Trump's victory in November. The stock market has sold off.
"The one thing employers hate most is uncertainty, whether it's in regulation or supply chain," said Jane Oates, senior policy advisor at WorkingNation. "It's a really bad business atmosphere, we could be headed for an ugly spring."
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 160,000 jobs last month after rising 143,000 in January, a Reuters survey of economists showed. Estimates ranged from 30,000 to 300,000 positions.
The wide range reflects uncertainty of over the size of the anticipated rebound from the winter storms and fires in California, which in January helped to pull b...
[Short citation of 8% of the original article]