Recession watch 2025

The vibes have been bad for a while. Now there are some, uh . . . other indicators that are looking shaky too.

Markets’ recession signals either arrive too late (when everybody’s already lost their jobs) or too often (see the joke about stocks predicting 10 of the past three recessions). And right now, market signals are a bit of a Rorschach test. US stocks entered a correction in mid-March, but the yield curve hasn’t inverted and high-yield credit spreads remain sanguine. The Federal Reserve is forecasting lower growth and higher inflation, but officials haven’t substantially altered their expected path for policy rates.

In other words: If the music really has stopped, investors and policymakers haven’t responded yet.

So instead we are collecting some of our favourite signals of early economic distress. Please do leave your own preferred rare indicators in the comments, whether they’re flashing a wa...
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