Bad ‘hard’ data creeps in

Good morning. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs on any country that imports Russian oil, hoping to push Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war he started in Ukraine. Like Trump’s tariffs on Venezuelan oil importers, this is essentially an additional sanction on Russian oil, which will put upward pressure on the global price. Will oil break $90 per barrel this year? Or will Trump back off if oil prices rise enough for his voters to notice? Email us: [email protected] and [email protected]. 

Personal Consumption Expenditures

In a month of big market moves, it’s hard to tell which moves are meaningful and which are noise. The S&P 500’s 2 per cent drop on Friday appears to have been the former. 

The key catalyst was a p...
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