US and global economic outlook deteriorates in Trump trade war, IMF says

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. and global economies will likely slow significantly in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the uncertainty they have created, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

The IMF said that the global economy will grow just 2.8% this year, down from its forecast in January of 3.3%, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. And in 2026, global growth will be 3%, the fund predicts, also below its previous 3.3% estimate.

And the Fund sees the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States, weakening: U.S. economic growth will come in at just 1.8% this year, down sharply from its previous forecast of 2.7% and a full percentage point below its 2024 expansion. The IMF doesn’t expect a U.S. recession, though it has raised its odds of one this year from 25% to about 40%.

China is now projected to expand 4% this year and next, down roughly half a point from its previous forecasts.