The situation with the reliability of energy supply in Russia has worsened in recent years, as evidenced by malfunctions, such accidents in the south of the country in 2024, the Ecopsi consulting company, which RBC got acquainted. The introduction of new capacities and network objects does not have time for consumption, as a result, a deficiency of electricity is predicted, for the stopping of which existing measures are not enough.
In 2024–2030, it is expected to accelerate the growth rate of electricity consumption in a single energy system (EEC) of Russia by half compared to the period of 2014–2023 - from 1.1 to 1.9–2.1%. Such dynamics is associated with the implementation of large -scale investment projects, the reorientation of traffic flows, as well as with an increase in the load on the part of data processing centers (data centers) and mining.
Since 2020, the volume of the predicted power deficit in the energy system has been growing annually, and with the beginning of the accident factor after the failure in the south of Russia in 2024, it jumped six times a year in relation to the previous forecast - up to 14.2 GW by 2030. The number of territories with a predicted “system operator” (CO, the dispatcher of the energy system) with a local deficit also increased-from one or three to four in the EEC of Russia and four in the TITES (technologically isolated territorial electric power systems). The situation is complicated by the departure of foreign suppliers of equipment, rising prices for materials, a decrease in project profitability and a high key rate, EcoPSI experts write.
Kom NGO, the basic mechanism for eliminating energy deficiency (involves the construction of a new generation due to mandatory payments from the market), solves the problem, but slowly and expensive, is approved in the study. From identifying the deficit to the input of new power plants, 8-10 years pass, and the process is slowed down by a breakdown of the d...
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