Sinwar’s Death Will Not End Israeli Operations in the Gaza Strip

ISW - 18/10

By Brian Carter

October 18, 2024

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will not end the operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to trigger a rethink within Hamas about its basic strategy, which is to survive the war and secure a ceasefire that results in a total Israeli withdrawal.[1] Sinwar will be replaced by capable military commanders in the Gaza Strip and equally extreme political leaders abroad. A total Israeli withdrawal would be akin to Israel’s surrender in this war and would enable Sinwar’s capable successors to rebuild Hamas’ military organization over the next decade to threaten Israel once more.

Sinwar’s brother Mohammad Sinwar is the most likely candidate to officially take over the group’s military wing and guide the rebuilding of Hamas. Mohammad joined Hamas’ earliest cells in the 1980s, later rising to lead Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade.[2] Mohammad has more recently served as Hamas’ head for logistics and manpower and ...
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