Keyword "ORBAT" - List of latest news (1 867 results)

03:53 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2025

The Financial Times (FT) reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to end the war in Ukraine on the current frontlines. Kremlin officials, including Putin, have repeatedly and explicitly emphasized that Russia maintains its territorial

02:24 Iran Update, April 22, 2025

Unspecified Iranian sources told a Qatari-owned, London-based outlet on April 22 that the US-Iran nuclear talks are progressing “beyond belief.” Iran could calculate that by framing the talks as positive, even if the reality does not match, Iran could del

22/04 Iran Update April 21, 2025

Iran and the United States held a second round of nuclear talks in Rome on April 19.

22/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's April 20 proposal for a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against civilian infrastructure, declined Zelensky's offer to extend Putin's own 30-hour Easter truce,

21/04 Russian Occupation Update, April 21, 2025

A recent BBC Verify investigation highlights the scale of Russia’s property seizures in occupied Mariupol, supporting ISW’s assessment of how Russian occupation officials are using bureaucratic tools to exert control over occupied Ukraine. The inv

20/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2025

The snap Russian-proposed Easter truce underscores the necessity that the text of any ceasefire or peace agreement be publicly available, formally agreed to in advance by all parties, and include robust monitoring mechanisms.

20/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed extending Russian President Vladimir Putin's 30-hour unilateral truce on Russian military operations in Ukraine to a complete and unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Putin ordered Russian Chief of the General

19/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2025

Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) Vasily Nebenzya reiterated Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of a general ceasefire in Ukraine.

19/04 Iran Update, April 18, 2025

Iran proposed a three-stage nuclear deal proposal that caps Iranian uranium enrichment but would leave the necessary infrastructure in place to enable Iran to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program if the deal collapsed.

18/04 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, April 18, 2025

People’s Republic of China (PRC) military officers have visited Russian-held territory in Ukraine and toured the frontlines, according to a former Western official speaking to Reuters. These visits highlight PRC efforts to learn from the Russia-Ukraine w

18/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2025

Russian officials continue to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin's non-negotiable demands for extensive territorial concessions from Ukraine while noting that ongoing peace negotiations are unlikely to achieve results quickly.

18/04 Iran Update, April 17, 2025

Senior Iranian political and military officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman in Tehran on April 17. Saudi Arabia may seek to reassure Iran about its positions on a potential strike on Iran and

17/04 Africa File, April 17, 2025: RSF War Crimes and Possible Genocide; al Shabaab Retaking Central Somalia; M23 Challenges; Algeria-Mali Spat

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has committed numerous war crimes as the group has intensified its efforts to consolidate control over western Sudan since losing Khartoum in March 2025.

17/04 Russian Occupation Update; April 17, 2025

Russian officials continue to advertise programs that deport and Russify Ukrainian children and teenagers. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin held a meeting with Russian deputy prime ministers on April 14 and discussed the “University Shifts” pro

17/04 Iran Update, April 16, 2025

Iran is unlikely to accept zero uranium enrichment and full dismantlement of its nuclear program

16/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2025

The White House reiterated that the United States will not engage in economic agreements with Russia until Russia agrees to a ceasefire, amid continued Russian efforts to deflect blame onto Ukraine for the Kremlin's rejection of such a ceasefire.

16/04 Iran Update, April 15, 2025

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may calculate that engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States is the best option for preserving the Iranian regime's stability. Khamenei discussed the United States-Iran nuclear talks and economic

16/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15, 2025

Two high-ranking members of Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle reiterated Putin's June 2024 non-negotiable demands that any resolution of the war in Ukraine must result in regime change, extensive territorial concessions, and long-term

16/04 Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 15, 2025

The Kremlin is using surge pricing for enlistment bonuses to recruit additional volunteers and attempt to sustain Russia's protracted war effort in Ukraine. Numerous Russian federal subjects dramatically increased the price of one-time enlistment bonuses

15/04 Sudan’s Civil War: Global Stakes, Local Costs

Key Takeway: The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have fought a civil war in Sudan since April 2023. Countries such as Iran, Russia, and the UAE are fueling the war to the detriment of US interests in the Red Sea

15/04 Iran Update, April 14, 2025

Iran and the United States held nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman, on April 12. The Iranian delegation, which was led by Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, presented Iran’s demands and red lines to the US delegation, which was led by US Special Envoy t

15/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2025

Russian forces appear to be leveraging redeployed elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army to close the Ukrainian pocket southwest of Toretsk and level the frontline as part of ongoing Russian efforts to attack Kostyantynivka from the south

14/04 Russian Occupation Update; April 14, 2025

Russia is using occupied Ukraine to support its domestic drone development and production industry. The Ukrainian Eastern Human Rights Group (EHRG) and Institute for Strategic Research and Security (ISRS) released a report on April 3 detailing how Russia

14/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2025

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that ongoing US-Russian negotiations are unlikely to result in "lightning-fast results," contrary to US President Donald Trump's stated objective of achieving a general ceasefire and lasting peace agreement in

13/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2025

US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg expressed support on April 11 for the deployment of an allied "reassurance force" in rear areas of western Ukraine after a possible future ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The Times reported on April

12/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2025

Ukraine's European partners announced new military aid during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on April 11.

12/04 Iran Update, April 11, 2025

Iran will likely attempt to use nuclear negotiations with the United States to delay a potential strike on its nuclear facilities and the imposition of snapback sanctions.

11/04 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, April 11, 2025

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) raised tariffs on the United States from 34 percent to 125 percent and imposed export controls on seven critical minerals that are essential to the US defense industry. The PRC was retaliating for the United States i

11/04 Africa File, April 10, 2025: RSF’s Northern Sudan Campaign

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have highly publicized their campaign against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in northern Sudan to boost RSF morale following its defeat in Khartoum, as the actual military campaign has limited strategic value.

11/04 The Kremlin Sentenced a Popular Russian General to Lead a Penal Assault Detachment in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned former 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA] Commander Major General Ivan Popov to command a penal assault detachment in Ukraine — a demotion and effectively a death sentence — after Popov publicly appealed to Putin for

11/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 9 that Ukraine is interested in purchasing a large package of weapons from the United States, possibly within the framework of a future US-Ukraine mineral deal, as part of Ukrainian efforts to obtain

11/04 Iran Update, April 10, 2025

A Senior Iranian official threatened to reduce cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if external threats against Iran continue. Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani stated on April 10 that Iran could expel IAEA

10/04 Russian Occupation Update; April 10, 2025

Russian occupation administrations are seizing property throughout occupied Ukraine in order to collect personal information on residents of occupied areas, conduct coerced passportization, and facilitate the relocation of Russian citizens to occupied

10/04 Iran Update, April 9, 2025

US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted at least 10 airstrikes on April 8 targeting a Houthi military base on Mount Nuqum on the eastern outskirts of Sanaa City. The strike reportedly injured Houthi President Mahdi al Mashat and a senior Houthi

10/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2025

Russian forces continue to marginally advance in the Sumy-Kursk Oblast border area, but the Russian force grouping in the area will likely be unable to launch a major offensive operation against Sumy City in the near term without receiving significant

09/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8, 2025

Ukrainian forces recently captured Chinese nationals fighting in the Russian military in several areas of Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on April 8 that Ukrainian forces captured several Chinese "fighters" who were

09/04 Iran Update, April 8, 2025

Iran agreed to “high-level” talks with the United States in Oman on April 12, but it is very unlikely to agree to some of the reported US demands. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will l

08/04 Russian Occupation Update, April 8, 2025

The Kremlin is using the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to consolidate social control over occupied areas of Ukraine and destroy any semblance of religious freedom.

08/04 Iran Update, April 7, 2025

Regional diplomatic sources told CNN on April 6 that the Yemeni government is preparing for a ground offensive against the Houthis. The offensive would reportedly consist of advances from the south and east and along the western Yemeni coast to take

08/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2025

The Kremlin continues to deny the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government as part of efforts to claim that Ukraine is not a legitimate negotiating partner and to demand Ukrainian regime change and demilitarization. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov

07/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6, 2025

The rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has been steadily declining since November 2024, in part due to successful Ukrainian counterattacks in eastern Ukraine.

06/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2025

European and NATO officials emphasized that a strong Ukrainian military backed by European security guarantees remains the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression to ensure long-term peace in Ukraine and Europe. NATO General Secretary

05/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2025

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev gave several interviews with American news outlets on April 3 and presented views that contradict the current Kremlin line on Ukraine.

05/04 Iran Update, April 4, 2025

US Central Command (CENTCOM) is conducting a military operation in Yemen that aims to render the Houthis unable or unwilling to continue attacks that threaten US ships and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. This does not imply that CENTCOM must

04/04 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, April 4, 2025

The Taiwanese Central Election Commission (CEC) advanced eight recall petitions targeting ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators. These are the first petitions against the DPP that have passed the first stage, as all other cases are

04/04 Iran Update April 3, 2025

Iran is continuing to try to bolster its air defenses in preparation for a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Iran has built a new Ghadir phased-array radar in West Azerbaijan Province in northwestern Iran in recent months, according to commercially

04/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2025

Russia seeks to leverage ongoing ceasefire and future peace negotiations to seize large amounts of territory in Ukraine and install a pro-Russian puppet government in Kyiv but will likely continue military operations in Ukraine if the Kremlin is unable

03/04 Alawite Insurgents Seek to Use Sectarian Violence to Destabilize the Interim Government in Syria

Alawite insurgents are trying to foment sectarian conflict to undermine and destabilize the interim Syrian government. Sectarian violence and disinformation have intensified in Syria in recent weeks, jeopardizing the political transition from the Bashar

03/04 Africa File, April 3, 2025: Russia-Sahel Summit; Sahelian Juntas Target Chinese Mining; M23 Loses Walikale But Uganda Leaves Vacuum in North Kivu

Russia is consolidating its strategic relationships with the Sahelian juntas to entrench itself in the region. The foreign ministers from the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Aff

03/04 Russian Occupation Update, April 3, 2025

The Russian “Helping Ours” Foundation facilitated the deportation of 39 Ukrainian children from occupied Luhansk Oblast to a Russian government-controlled medical facility in Moscow Oblast in late March 2025.

03/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2, 2025

Russian officials are continuing to exploit the temporary energy infrastructure ceasefire's vague or unfinalized terms. US officials reportedly continue to acknowledge Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to commit to a general ceasefire in

02/04 Iran Update April 2, 2025

Iran continued to threaten US bases and forces, likely to try to discourage a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid US threats to strike these facilities.

02/04 Iran Update, April 1, 2025

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) thwarted a Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian plan on April 1 to conduct a “major” attack targeting Israelis abroad.  The IDF killed Hassan Ali Mahmoud Badir, who was a member of Hezbollah Unit 3900 and the Islamic Revo

02/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2025

Russian forces are reportedly continuing to shell Ukrainian energy infrastructure amid ongoing negotiations over details of the ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure strikes, indicating that Russia may be exploiting the ceasefire's vague or

01/04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2025

US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that there is an unspecified "psychological deadline" for Russia to agree to a general ceasefire amid continued Russian efforts to hold the temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea hostage to stall efforts toward

01/04 Iran Update, March 31, 2025

Iran continues to threaten the United States with military action to dissuade the United States from a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike the nuclear facilities.

31/03 Russian Occupation Update, March 31, 2025

Russian occupation authorities have intensified law enforcement activity in occupied areas of Ukraine since mid-March, likely in part due to Russian President Vladimir Putin's March 20 decree ordering Ukrainians living in occupied areas to obtain Russian

30/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2025

US President Donald Trump expressed willingness to introduce additional sanctions targeting Russian oil and secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not make progress towards a general ceasefire,

30/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2025

Ukrainian and US officials continue to negotiate the terms of temporary ceasefires on Black Sea operations and energy infrastructure strikes, indicating the ceasefires are not yet fully codified. Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy reported on March 26 that U

29/03 Iran Update, March 28, 2025

Recent statements from senior Iranian officials about indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States may aim to appeal to several domestic audiences.

28/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reintensifying efforts to portray the current Ukrainian government as illegitimate and unable to engage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

28/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated on March 26 that discussions are ongoing about the details of the temporary ceasefire agreements on energy infrastructure strikes and maritime operations in the Black Sea.

28/03 Iran Update, March 27, 2025

Iran responded on March 26 to US President Donald Trump's letter proposing nuclear negotiations. Iran signaled it is open to indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States but rejects direct negotiations under the current conditions.

27/03 Africa File, March 27, 2025: SAF Liberates Khartoum; Burundi and Rwanda Tensions

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) fully retook central Khartoum and are clearing the last pockets of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) resistance from the greater Khartoum area, marking a major military and political victory for the SAF. Russia, the United Arab

27/03 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 27, 2025

The PRC is continuing to develop its ability to cut undersea cables, which it could use to coerce and isolate Taiwan. A likely PRC-operated vessel entered Taiwanese waters likely in order to refuel other PRC vessels, including those involved in

27/03 Iran Updates (Oct. 7 War)

This page collects the refocused Iran Updates that ISW and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute began publishing on October 7, 2023. ISW and CTP refocused the Iran Update to cover the October 7 War. The new sections

27/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26, 2025

The details of the ceasefire agreements on energy strikes and maritime operations in the Black Sea that US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials reached on March 24 and 25 remain unclear.

26/03 Ukraine Conflict Updates

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

26/03 Iran Update, March 26, 2025

The United States has asked the Syrian interim government to curtail foreign fighters’ influence in the Syrian government in exchange for partial sanctions relief, according to Reuters.

26/03 Iran Update, March 25, 2025

Top Iranian officials reportedly authorized Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi to "advance any diplomatic initiative in relation to the United States," according to an Iranian expert close to the regime. It is not clear who precisely

26/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2025

US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials reached some agreements for temporary ceasefires on strikes against energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. The details of these ceasefires remain unclear and evaluating the ceasefires’ specifics in the absence of

25/03 Iran Update, March 24, 2025

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted at least 27 airstrikes targeting Houthi military infrastructure and leadership in several locations across Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen since March 21.

24/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2025

US and Russian delegations met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on March 24 following US–Ukrainian talks on March 23 about the details of temporary ceasefires on long-range strikes and in the Black Sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 23 t

24/03 Putin is Still Stealing Ukrainian Children

Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine over three years ago with the intent, among other things, of stealing its children. Putin launched his imperial conquest to first and foremost dominate the Ukrainian people, and he recognized that to

23/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2025

US and Ukrainian officials are meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on the evening of March 23 to discuss the contours of the temporary moratorium on long-range strikes and a possible temporary maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.

23/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 22, 2025

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff uncritically amplified a number of Russian demands, claims, and justifications regarding the war in Ukraine during an interview on March 21. Witkoff told American media personality Tucker Carlson in an

22/03 Iran Update, March 21, 2025

 Senior Iranian officials are trying to obfuscate Iran’s role in leading the Axis of Resistance by denying that Iran exerts direct control over groups like the Houthis, likely to avoid escalation with the United States.

22/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2025

The Kremlin is weaponizing ongoing ceasefire negotiations and deliberately misrepresenting the status and terms of a future ceasefire agreement in order to delay and undermine negotiations for a settlement to the war.

21/03 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 21, 2025

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te announced 17 measures to counter PRC coercion and malign influence targeting the Taiwanese government, military, and people. His political opponents criticized these measures and downplayed the threat that the PRC

21/03 Africa File, March 20, 2025: Qatari-Mediated Ceasefire in DRC; SAF Closes in on Khartoum; RSF Attacks Spread to South Sudan; Al Shabaab Ramadan Offensive; Tigray Simmers as Amhara Escalates; Russia’s Red Sea Efforts; Burkinabe Massacres

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda agreed to a Qatari-mediated ceasefire, but fundamental disagreements remain an obstacle to long-term peace efforts.

21/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2025

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast on the night of March 19 to 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 20 that elements of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), Unmanned Systems Forces, Special

21/03 Iran Update, March 20, 2025

A senior official from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba implicitly warned on March 20 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria if US forces do not withdraw from Iraq by the end

20/03 Iran Update, March 19, 2025

President Donald Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, according to an Axios report. Iran is very unlikely to agree to a new deal on a two-month timetable given its current p

20/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2025

Russia and Ukraine have not formally announced the implementation of the temporary long-range strikes ceasefire. Ceasefires take time to negotiate, execute, and monitor and require both sides to agree to cease attacks on specified targets at a specific

19/03 Iran Update, March 18, 2025

Recent tit-for-tat sectarian killings and local support for pro-Assad insurgent cells will likely hamper Syrian interim government efforts to promote security and community reconciliation in coastal Syria.

19/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not accept the US-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire along the frontline and reiterated his demands for a resolution to the war that amount to Ukrainian capitulation.

18/03 Iran Update, March 17, 2025

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Houthi leaders and infrastructure in Yemen since March 15. The strikes are in response to the Houthi attack campaign on international shipping, which the Houthis launched in

17/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have been partially successful in holding the ceasefire proposal hostage as part of his efforts to extract preemptive concessions from US President Donald Trump in negotiations to end the war. Trump stated on

17/03 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 14, 2025

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is trying to leverage its influence in friendly countries to persecute pro-independence Taiwanese nationals who live or travel there, according to an internal Taiwanese government memo.

17/03 Iran Update, March 14, 2025

Iran, China, and Russia issued a joint statement on March 14 effectively condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran.

17/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2025

ISW has observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine. Putin seized on a statement by US President Donald Trump about

17/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2025

Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian officials continue to deny Russian President Vladimir Putin's unsubstantiated claim that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast. Russian milbloggers published maps on March

17/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2025

US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions.

14/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal that the United States and Ukraine recently agreed upon in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and offered an alternative proposal that undermines US President Donald Trump's stated goal of securing a

14/03 Iran Update, March 13, 2025

 The Houthis have sought to obtain hydrogen fuel cells from unspecified Chinese suppliers to increase the range and payloads of their drones, according to a November 2024 Conflict Armament Research (CAR) investigation.

13/03 Africa File, March 13, 2025: Looming Civil Wars in Ethiopia, South Sudan Threaten to Plunge Horn into Crisis; Renewed Peace Talks in DRC as M23 Advances

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remains unlikely to accede to M23’s and Rwanda’s maximalist negotiating demands despite nominally conceding to Angolan-mediated direct talks with M23. The DRC, M23, and Rwanda may be open to short-term cea

13/03 Africa File Special Edition: Tigray Threatens to Spark the Next Eritrean-Ethiopian War and Plunge the Horn of Africa into Crisis

A violent power struggle in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region risks sparking another civil war in Ethiopia, which could, in turn, expand quickly to include Eritrea. Renewed conflict in Tigray or between Ethiopia and Eritrea would generate an economic, h

13/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold hostage the ceasefire proposal to which Ukraine has agreed in order to extract preemptive concessions before formal negotiations to end the war have started. Reuters reported on March 12 that senior Russian

13/03 Iran Update, March 12, 2025

The risk of sectarian violence from Syria spilling into Iraq is increasing. A newly formed Shia group called the Ya Ali Popular Formations announced on March 11 that it has begun to pursue Jabhat al Nusra members and supporters around Baghdad.

12/03 Iran Update, March 11, 2025

The Syrian interim government has taken initial steps to prosecute individuals who committed crimes during recent insurgent activity in western Syria between March 6 and 10. Interim government forces arrested five individuals on March 11 for committing

12/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2025

The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia's agreement, and the United States reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid. US and Ukrainian representatives met in

11/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2025

Russia continues to publicly claim that it wants peace while offering no concessions of its own in sharp contrast with the concessions Ukraine has already offered. Russian officials continue to capitalize on the Trump administration's statements and

11/03 Iran Update, March 10, 2025

Current Syrian interim government counterinsurgency operations are insufficient to defeat pro-Assad insurgent cells across Syria. I

10/03 Understanding Syria’s Emerging Insurgency

The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. The most organized insurgents are Alawites in the coastal areas. These Alawites are likely supported by Hezbollah smuggling networks, given these networks’ overlapping a

10/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2025

Russian forces are collapsing the northern part of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast following several days of intensified Russian activity in the area. The temporal correlation between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the

09/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2025

The extent of the US suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine remains unclear. The Washington Post reported on March 7 that a statement by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) noted that the NGA "temporarily suspended [Ukraine's]

08/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2025

Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 6 to 7 as Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine's air defense umbrella by increasing the total number of

08/03 Iran Update, March 7, 2025

Insurgent cells continued to attack Syrian interim government personnel across Latakia and Tartous provinces as Syrian forces deployed to re-impose security over the coastal region.

08/03 The West Must Offer Syria's Interim Government Tightly Conditioned Aid against an Emerging Assadist Insurgency

An Assadist insurgency has emerged in western Syria and stands to help US adversaries expand their influence there.

07/03 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 7, 2025

Recall campaigns against 32 legislators in the KMT opposition advanced to the next stage. Successful recalls could shift the balance of power in the Taiwanese legislature to favor the ruling DPP.

07/03 Iran Update, March 6, 2025

Small-scale insurgent cells have started to emerge and attack Syrian interim government forces in certain areas of Syria. Former Assad regime members conducted coordinated attacks on Syrian military checkpoints and patrols in Jableh, Beit Ana, and

07/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected

06/03 Africa File, March 6, 2025: Burundi and Rwanda Truce in Eastern DRC Despite M23 Advance; SAF Targets RSF Supply Lines in Darfur; Sahelian Jihadists Tap Trans-Saharan Networks

Rwandan-backed M23 rebels have halted their southward advance along the Burundian border in South Kivu after Burundi and Rwanda likely reached a deal to deconflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which decreases the risk of a wider

06/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2025

The Trump administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, one of many demands the Kremlin has made of the US, Ukraine, and Ukraine's other supporters.

06/03 Iran Update, March 5, 2025

US sanctions on Houthi officials for coordinating with Russia demonstrate how Russia facilitates Iranian-backed groups’ terrorism in the Middle East. The United States designated the Houthis a foreign terrorist organization and sanctioned eight Houthi o

05/03 Iran Update, March 4, 2025

Russia offered to mediate between the United States and Iran, according to unspecified sources speaking to Bloomberg. Russian mediation would reportedly cover Iranian nuclear activities and support for the Axis of Resistance. It is far from clear that

05/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2025

US President Donald Trump ordered a pause on US military aid to Ukraine on March 3, suspending the delivery of critical warfighting materiel. An anonymous White House official told the Wall Street Journal on March 3 that the United States is "pausing and

04/03 Iran Update, March 3, 2025

Iran appears to be revising its air defense concepts since Israel neutralized the Iranian S-300s in 2024. Brigadier General Ali Reza Sabahi Fard, who commands the Artesh Air Defense Force and Khatam ol Anbia Joint Air Defense Headquarters, said on March

04/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2025

Ukrainian military intelligence indicated that about 620,000 Russian soldiers are operating in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, an increase of about 40,000 personnel compared to late 2024. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Head Major

03/03 Russia is Cautiously Optimistic Following the Zelensky-Trump Meeting

The Kremlin is falsely framing the US objectives of achieving peace in Ukraine as being aligned with Russia's stated objectives of destroying Ukraine as a sovereign state in the aftermath of the February 28 White House meeting between Ukrainian President

03/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2025

Recent Russian official statements in response to the proposed US-Ukraine mineral deal indicate that the Kremlin is trying to sabotage the deal through narratives targeting Ukrainian and American audiences. The Kremlin is claiming that this mineral deal

02/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2025

Senior US officials are suggesting that the United States may cut all aid to Ukraine, although US President Donald Trump has not indicated any such intention. Cutting the current flow of aid to Ukraine would directly undermine President Trump’s stated g

01/03 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump held a contentious meeting at the White House on February 28. Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's

28/02 Iran Update, February 28, 2025

Iran and China continue to cooperate to circumvent US sanctions. At least eight tankers have participated in ship-to-ship transfers to move Iranian oil to China in recent weeks.

28/02 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 28, 2025

The Taiwanese Central Election Commission (CEC) approved recall votes for 19 Kuomintang (KMT) legislators, which could diminish the influence of the opposition parties in the Legislative Yuan (LY)

28/02 Africa File, February 27, 2025: SAF Advances West Toward Darfur; M23 and DRC Reset as International Pressure Grows on Rwanda; ISSP Poses Clear Transnational Threat; al Shabaab Central Somalia Offensive

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are advancing in south-central Sudan and setting conditions for an offensive into Rapid Support Forces (RSF) strongholds in Darfur. The SAF captured el Obeid—a state capital in south-central Sudan that will likely support S

28/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials continue to reject US negotiating terms and demand that Ukraine surrender territory that Russia does not occupy. Putin stated in his February 27 address to the Federal Security Service (FSB)

28/02 Iran Update, February 27, 2025

US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi rejected a call from Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan to disarm and dissolve. Ocalan, who is imprisoned in Turkey, said that “all groups must lay [down] their arms” and c

27/02 Putin Deepens Russia's Ties with US Adversaries as US-Russia Talks Begin

Russia's outreach to American adversaries continues despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts at rapprochement with the Trump administration. Putin spoke with People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping on February 24, the third a

27/02 Iran Update, February 26, 2025

 Iran increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium by 92.5 kilograms (kg), or 2.2 significant quantities, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report.

27/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2025

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are planning to meet at the White House on February 28, likely to sign a US-Ukraine mineral deal. A draft agreement of the deal published ahead of the meeting does not provide US

26/02 A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat

The withdrawal of US forces from Syria would risk reversing hard-earned gains against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). ISIS is not destroyed.  It is kept in check by the combined pressure of US forces in Iraq and Syria and their Kurdish

26/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin implicitly acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president of Ukraine and Russia's future negotiating partner while promoting a new information operation that aims to destabilize Ukrainian

26/02 Iran Update, February 25, 2025

The British ambassador to Israel stated on February 25 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) has given Iran until the end of June 2025 to conclude a new nuclear deal and prevent the imposition of snapback sanctions. It is very unlikely

25/02 Iran Update, February 24, 2025

The Syrian interim government began a two-day National Dialogue Conference on February 24 on 24-hour notice. The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-affiliated Preparatory Committee started sending invitations to over one thousand Syrians nationwide and

25/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago on February 24, 2022. Ukraine has not been defeated or destroyed but remains resilient and innovative in the face of this unjustified Russian

24/02 Fact Sheet: Istanbul Protocol Draft Document of April 15, 2022

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred on February 23 to the draft Istanbul Protocol crafted in 2022 as a "guidepost" for future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Russia's demands in the draft agreement were made in the first

24/02 Russia has Failed to Break Ukraine

Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. These Russian efforts included major

24/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2025

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.

23/02 Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a coordinated campaign in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society in Russia, likely out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his

23/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2025

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations. Ryabkov claimed that the United States and

22/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2025

Russian state media and Kremlin officials appear to be leveraging select statements from US officials alongside long-standing Russian narratives to create tension between the United States and Ukraine and undermine faith in America's commitment to

22/02 Iran Update, February 21, 2025

Iranian Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the IRGC commander—threatened to attack "all [US] bases and ships in the region" during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20.

21/02 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 20, 2025

Taiwanese civil society groups have now submitted 52 recall petitions, 36 of which target opposition legislators and 16 of which target legislators from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The 2024 legislative election results and recent

21/02 Ukraine Fact Sheet, February 21, 2025

Russian forces currently occupy around 20 percent of Ukraine, leaving the remaining 80 percent of the country under Ukraine's sovereign control. At the current rate of advance, it would take Russian forces over 83 years to capture the remaining 80

21/02 Iran Update, February 20, 2025

Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders have resurfaced threats to conduct a direct attack on Israel, likely to try to shape Israeli decision making and deter a potential Israeli strike on Iran. Several senior IRGC commanders,

21/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2025

The Financial Times (FT) published an investigation on February 20 supporting ISW's long-held assessment that Russian military commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear

20/02 Africa File, February 20, 2025: M23 Advance Continues Unchallenged; SAF Grows Partnerships with Iran and Russia; RSF Creates Parallel Government in Sudan

Democratic Republic of the Congo. Rwandan-backed M23 captured the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, and continued to advance on several axes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). M23’s advances have set conditions for the group to e

20/02 Iran Update, February 19, 2025

The Syrian Preparatory Committee does not plan to include the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), in the National Dialogue Conference.

20/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly trying to optimize the Russian negotiations delegation to be most effective with the specific individuals whom the United States chooses for its negotiation delegation, likely in an effort to extract maximum

19/02 Russia's Weakness Offers Leverage

The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine. Russia will likely face a number of

19/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2025

Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western

19/02 Iran Update, February 18, 2025

A Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) commander stated that the SDF and the governing body in northeast Syria agreed to merge their forces into the Syrian Defense Ministry on February 17. A commander within the Northern Democratic Brigade—a faction of the S

18/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2025

The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions

18/02 Iran Update, February 17, 2025

Unspecified sources told Bloomberg that Russia appears to be nearing a deal with the Syrian interim government to maintain a “reduced” military presence in Syria

17/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2025

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone call on February 16 to "open a channel of communication" for future talks about the war in Ukraine. US State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated that

16/02 Iran Update, February 16, 2025

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continued to shell Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions along the M4 highway north of Raqqa on February 14 and 15.

16/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to create conditions to frame Putin as the victor over US President Donald Trump in negotiations.

15/02 Iran Update, February 15, 2025

Russian cargo vessels have continued to evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus as Russia negotiates its presence in Syria with the interim government.

15/02 Iran Update, February 14, 2025

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Raphael Grossi stated that Iran will likely have 250kg of uranium enriched up to 60% by the next IAEA report in March 2025. This marks a significant increase in Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched u

15/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 14.

14/02 Iran Update, February 13, 2025

The newly-appointed Syrian Preparatory Committee provided some details about how it plans to select representatives to attend the National Dialogue Conference. This conference will reportedly facilitate the drafting of a new Syrian constitution, and

14/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2025

Ukraine's European partners announced new military assistance to Ukraine amid the February 12 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting. The United Kingdom (UK) pledged 150 million pounds (about $188 million) in military support,

13/02 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 13, 2025

Taiwanese civil society groups have now submitted recall petitions targeting 31 opposition Kuomintang (KMT) legislators and 13 legislators from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Recall efforts could shift the balance of power within the

13/02 Africa File, February 13, 2025: SAF Announces Government Plan and Russian Naval Base; DRC Concedes to Direct Talks with M23; Turkey’s Growing Defense Partnerships in Africa

The leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) outlined plans for a new government that likely aims to legitimize the SAF as the sole governing power in Sudan after it captures the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. The SAF is advancing on the Rapid Support

13/02 Iran Update, February 12, 2025

Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara formed a preparatory committee on February 12 that is mostly comprised of pro-HTS individuals who are loyal to Shara. The composition of this committee suggests that it will likely make decisions that align with

13/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2025

US President Donald Trump held bilateral phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 12.

12/02 Iran Update, February 11, 2025

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to resume military operations in the Gaza Strip if Hamas fails to release Israeli hostages on February 15. Netanyahu made this announcement after he convened a security cabinet meeting on February 11

12/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2025

Russian officials are reportedly attempting to constrain Russian milblogger reporting about the current frontline in Kursk Oblast, likely in response to concerns that the West will pressure Russia into trading Russian territory for occupied Ukrainian

11/02 Lessons of the Minsk Deal: Breaking the Cycle of Russias War in Ukraine

Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. The United States must learn from the Minsk deal o

11/02 Iran Update, February 10, 2025

Hamas said on February 10 that it would postpone the release of Israeli hostages on February 15, which would be a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Hamas likely aims to retain its hostages as leverage in negotiations. Hamas’ military wing s

11/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2025

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced the Ukrainian "Drone Line" project on February 10 as part of ongoing Ukrainian efforts to integrate drone and ground operations. Umerov stated that the Ukrainian military will "scale up" five existing

09/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2025

 Russia continues to leverage its partnerships with US adversaries, including North Korea, to offset the resource shortages constraining Russia's economy and war effort.

09/02 Iran Update, February 9, 2025

 Senior Iranian military leaders have urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent months to approve the construction of a nuclear weapon, according to an unspecified Iranian official speaking to the Telegraph.

09/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2025

Russia may be providing drone and missile technology to North Korea in exchange for North Korean troops fighting in Kursk Oblast. Japanese outlet NHK, citing multiple sources familiar with Russia–North Korea relations, reported on February 8 that Russia h

08/02 Iran Update, February 8, 2025

Hamas released three male Israeli hostages on February 8. Hamas gave the hostages to the International Committee of the Red Cross in Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip. Israel, in exchange, released 183 Palestinian prisoners, including 111 whom the

08/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2025

Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during mechanized assaults in their salient in Kursk Oblast on February 6, but Russian sources claimed on February 6 and 7 that Russian forces have at least temporarily stalled Ukrainian advances southeast of Sudzha.

08/02 Iran Update, February 7, 2025

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei categorically rejected nuclear negotiations with the United States during a speech to Iranian military personnel in Tehran on February 7.

07/02 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 7, 2025

 Taiwanese civil society groups are leading a large-scale recall campaign targeting legislators from the Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party. These recalls could erode the current KMT-led majority in the Legislative Yuan

07/02 Iran Update, February 6, 2025

Many of the most prominent Iraqi Sunni political parties have emphasized the need for political action to achieve long-standing Sunni political demands ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025.

07/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2025

Ukrainian forces launched a new series of battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast and advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 6.

06/02 Africa File, February 6, 2025: M23 Unilateral Ceasefire; SAF Closes in on Khartoum; US Airstrikes in Northern Somalia; al Shabaab Reinfiltrates Central Somalia; IS Sahel Kidnapping Campaign; US-Algeria Relationship Grows

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is poised to secure a major victory by recapturing Khartoum and pushing the RSF west of the Nile. Securing these objectives would support the SAF’s grand strategic aim of establishing itself as the only legitimate power in

06/02 Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion: Six Month Assessment

A small group of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast have complicated the Russian military's efforts to advance in Ukraine over the last six months. Roughly a division's worth of Ukrainian troops have undermined the Russian military's ability to launch or

06/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to demonstrate his willingness to negotiate with Russia from a principled position that preserves Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in the long run. Zelensky reiterated during an interview

06/02 Iran Update, February 5, 2025

Iran is downplaying the significance of US “maximum pressure” sanctions while signaling some openness to nuclear negotiations with the West. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the maximum pressure policy is a “failed experiment” in

05/02 Iran Update, February 4, 2025

Iran is conducting nuclear research that would enable it to build a nuclear weapon in a period of months. The New York Times reported on February 3 that a "secret team" of Iranian weapons engineers and scientists is "exploring" a faster approach to build

05/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2025

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi visited the Kyivska Electrical Substation in Kyiv Oblast on February 4 to assess damage to the substation as Russian long-range strikes targeting energy infrastructure

04/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2025

Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on February 3 that Russian forces suffered 48,240 casualties –

04/02 Iran Update, February 3, 2025

Unknown actors detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) along the M4 highway outside of Manbij and killed at least 19 people on February 3. Syrian media reported that unknown actors parked the VBIED near the Hassin station, outside

03/02 Iran Update, February 2, 2025

The Iraqi parliament voted to approve an amendment to the Iraqi budget law to provide salaries for Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) employees and resume oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdistan Region on February 2. Several Iraqi security and political

03/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2025

Russian forces reportedly struck a dormitory holding Russian civilians in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 1 as Russian authorities widely attempted to deny Russian responsibility for the strike and blame Ukraine. Russia continues efforts to illegally

02/02 Iran Update, February 1, 2025

Hamas released three living male hostages, including one Israeli-American hostage, on February 1. Hamas released two hostages in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, and one hostage at the Gaza Port, in the northern Gaza Strip. This marked the first

01/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2025

Russian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 31 to February 1. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched seven Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh

01/02 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2025

Russian forces are expanding their salient north of Kupyansk as part of long-term operational efforts to push Ukrainian forces from the east (left) bank of the Oskil River.

01/02 Iran Update, January 31, 2025

Iran is financially supporting the military reconstitution of Lebanese Hezbollah.

31/01 Israel’s Operational Success and Strategic Shortcomings in the Gaza Strip

The Israeli campaign into the Gaza Strip was a military success but has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas as a governing entity. The Israeli government enumerated three objectives at the beginning of the war: destroy Hamas’ m

31/01 Africa File Special Edition: M23 March Threatens Expanded Conflict in DR Congo and Regional War in the Great Lakes

Rwandan-backed M23 rebels captured Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, which marks the most significant escalation in the conflict in the eastern DRC since the group last seized Goma in 2012. The group will seek to consolidate control over Goma,

31/01 Iran Update, January 30, 2025

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) released three Israeli hostages during the third hostage release on January 30. Hamas released a female soldier hostage in the northern Gaza Strip. Hamas transferred her to the International Committee of the Red

31/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2025

Kremlin newswire TASS published an interview with Valdai Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov on January 30 entitled "Don't count on big agreements," highlighting the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to shape domestic and global expectations about

30/01 Africa File, January 30, 2025

The Rwandan-backed M23 rebels seized control of Goma for the first time since 2012 and are continuing their advance southward toward the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. 

30/01 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 30, 2025

The Taiwanese government has created a blacklist of 52 PRC-owned ships that warrant greater scrutiny to keep track of the PRC’s growing “shadow fleet” of ostensibly commercial vessels that act on behalf of the PRC. The Tokyo Memorandum of Understanding (M

30/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Western military assistance remains vital to Ukraine's ability to maintain its defense against Russian aggression. Putin gave an interview to Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin published on January 28 in which

30/01 Iran Update, January 29, 2025

The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim Syrian government held a “victory conference” on January 29, during which it formalized much of its consolidation of power since the fall of Bashar al Assad. The conference announced the appointment of HTS lea

29/01 Iran Update, January 28, 2025

Turkish officials appear to believe that a planned call by imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to disarm would pressure the SDF into an agreement to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led interim government. Turkey

29/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2025

The first official Russian delegation arrived in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime on January 28 to discuss Russia's continued use of its military bases in Syria. The Russian delegation includes Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and

28/01 The Russia-Iran Coalition Deepens

Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally shifted and intensified the Russo-Iranian relationship. Tehran has leveraged Moscow’s growing material and financial requirements to sustain its war effort to support Tehran’s own domestic and

28/01 Iran Update, January 27, 2025

Gazan civilians began to return to the northern Gaza Strip on January 27 after Hamas fulfilled outstanding obligations under the ceasefire agreement. Hamas agreed to release a female civilian hostage held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) after the IDF

28/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2025

Ukrainian forces struck Russian long-range drone storage facilities in Oryol Oblast again on January 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 26 that the Ukrainian forces struck drone and thermobaric warhead storage warehouses, causing

27/01 Iran Update, January 26, 2025

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) agreed to release a female civilian hostage after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) prevented Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip on January 25 and 26. PIJ confirmed that hostage, Arbel Yehud, is “alive a

27/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2025

Russian forces recently made further advances within Velyka Novosilka amid official Russian claims that Russian forces seized the entire settlement on January 26. Geolocated footage published on January 26 indicates that Russian forces advanced northward

26/01 Iran Update, January 25, 2025

Israel announced on January 25 that it will prevent Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip because Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement.

25/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2025

Ukraine and Moldova continue to offer solutions to Transnistria's energy crisis as Moldovan President Maia Sandu met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on January 25.

25/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again attempting to obfuscate his unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations to end the war by blaming Ukraine for defending itself against Russia's invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian

25/01 Iran Update, January 24, 2025

Israel stated that the list of four female soldier hostages whom Hamas will release on January 25 would violate the ceasefire agreement.

24/01 Africa File, January 24, 2025: Russia Continues Pivot to Libya and Mali; SAF Advances in Khartoum; M23 Marches on Goma; IS Somalia Down but Not Out; AES Joint Force

Russia has continued to strengthen and expand its military presence in Libya and Mali as it withdraws assets from Syria. The Kremlin’s equipment buildup in Mali is likely unrelated to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and instead part of the K

24/01 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 24, 2025

The KMT-led Taiwanese legislature passed significant cuts and freezes to the 2025 national budget. The budget reductions will almost certainly impede the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led administration's ability to function and undermine Taiwan's

24/01 Iran Update, January 23, 2025

CTP-ISW has recorded no verifiable reports of kinetic activity in the Gaza Strip or attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel since the last data cut off on January 22.

24/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2025

Russia is reportedly planning to deploy additional North Korean forces, missiles, artillery systems, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Kursk Oblast to support Russian long-range fire operations. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate

23/01 Iran Update, January 22, 2025

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) announced the formation of joint operations rooms in the West Bank on January 22 with Hamas and al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades’ fighters.

23/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 22, 2025

The Kremlin has launched an information operation that seeks to create the false impression that the Russian economy is performing well despite numerous continued indicators of macroeconomic distress.

22/01 Iran Update, January 21, 2025

Hamas coordinated the distribution of aid and facilitated the movement of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip, which demonstrates that Hamas retains some degree of governing authority after 15 months of war. The Associated Press reported that Hamas has

22/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2025

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries in Russia on the night of January 20 to 21 as part of an ongoing strike series aimed at degrading Russian military capacity. The

21/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 20, 2025

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on January 20 that Russian forces suffered more than 434,000 casualties in 2024 — 150,000 of which were personnel killed in action. Syrskyi stated on December 30, 2024, that Russian forces s

21/01 Iran Update, January 20, 2025

Hamas announced that the next round of hostage releases will occur on January 26. Hamas released three female Israeli hostages on the first day of the ceasefire on January 19. Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners into the West Bank in exchange.

20/01 Iran Update, January 19, 2025

Hamas released three female Israeli hostages after the ceasefire went into effect. The IDF withdrew from areas in the northern and southern Gaza Strip on January 19. The Hamas-run government media office reported that Hamas deployed “thousands” of figh

20/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2025

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 18 that Russian forces used ammunition equipped with chemical agents banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) 434 times in Ukraine in December 2024, contributing to a total of 5,389 documented cases

19/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2025

Ukrainian forces struck two Russian oil depots in Kaluga and Tula oblasts on the night of January 17 to 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 18 that Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SSO) units and other Ukrainian forces struck an oil

19/01 Iran Update, January 18, 2025

The Israeli government approved the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal on January 18. The ceasefire will go into effect at 1:30AM ET on January 19 and the release of Israeli hostages will start at 9:30AM ET on January 19. Unspecified security sources

18/01 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 16, 2025

The South Korean authorities discovered a 164-foot tall and wide steel framework installed by the PRC within the Provisional Measures Zones (PMZ) of the Yellow Sea in December 2024. This installation is part of the PRC’s ongoing efforts to assert t

18/01 Iran Update, January 17, 2025

The Israeli security cabinet approved the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal on January 17. Israel’s full cabinet began deliberating on the deal on January 17 but has not released a decision on it as of the time of this writing.

18/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement on January 17.

17/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2025

Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast and a gunpowder plant in Tambov Oblast on the night of January 15 to 16.

17/01 Iran Update, January 16, 2025

The Israeli cabinet will vote on the ceasefire-hostage agreement on January 17 after it postponed its vote due to delays in Hamas approving an unresolved issue. Both sides resolved the issue.

16/01 China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 16, 2024

The South Korean authorities discovered a 164-foot tall and wide steel framework installed by the PRC within the Provisional Measures Zones (PMZ) of the Yellow Sea in December 2024. This installation is part of the PRC’s ongoing efforts to assert t

16/01 Africa File, January 16, 2025: SAF Advances in Central Sudan en Route to Khartoum; Canadian Gold Mining Company Leaves Mali with Russia on Standby; JNIM’s Deadliest-Ever Attack in Benin; DRC Launches Counteroffensive Against Rwandan-backed M23

The SAF recaptured Wad Madani from the RSF on January 11, an operationally significant district capital in central Sudan that will help to set conditions for the SAF to achieve its strategic objective of retaking the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. The

16/01 Iran Update, January 15, 2025

Israel and Hamas approved a ceasefire-hostage agreement on January 15. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani announced that mediators from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt will monitor the ceasefire, which will take effect on January

16/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2025

Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drones strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight on the night of January 14 to 15. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 74 Shahed and other strike drones and

15/01 Russias Quiet Conquest: Belarus

The Kremlin is in the endgame of a decades’ long strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus — an effort which will permanently augment Russia’s military and economic capabilities to pursue its revanchist geopolitical objectives against the United States a

15/01 Iran Update, January 14, 2025

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is confronting small pockets of locally organized fighter cells in areas under its control. Some of these groups are led by known Assad regime officials who have military experience and control pre-existing militias. HTS-led

15/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2025

The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of U

14/01 Iran Update, January 13, 2025

Israeli and Hamas officials appear to be optimistic after achieving a "breakthrough” in ceasefire negotiations in Doha on January 13. Israel and Hamas have yet to solve at least two outstanding issues, however.

14/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13, 2025

Russian forces recently cut the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway east of Pokrovsk and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova highway southwest of Pokrovsk as part of their efforts to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

13/01 Iran Update, January 12, 2025

Iran conducted an air defense exercise for the second time in recent days. This activity reflects Iranian concerns about possible airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, as Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear program. 

12/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12, 2025

Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision airstrike on the command post of Russia's 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA] (Central Military District) in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the operation is part of a broader

12/01 Iran Update, January 11, 2025

The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government announced that it thwarted an attempted Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) attack on a prominent Shia shrine outside Damascus. The Syrian Interior Ministry announced on January 11 the

12/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2025

Ukrainian forces reportedly captured the first North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) stated on January 11 that elements of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured a North Korean soldier in

11/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2025

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition and drone storage warehouse in Rostov Oblast on the night of January 9 to 10.

11/01 Iran Update, January 10, 2025

There are early indications that some Iraqi Sunni and Kurdish politicians are trying to build an alliance ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025.

10/01 Iran Update, January 9, 2025

Fighting reportedly erupted along parts of the frontline between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in northern Syria amid indications of an upcoming SNA offensive against the SDF. Local, anti-SDF

10/01 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 9, 2025

Ukraine's Western partners reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB) at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 9. Ukrainian President