Iran Update, March 12, 2025
Annika Ganzeveld, Carolyn Moorman, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, Johanna Moore, George Ekmekjian, and Nicholas Carl
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update every weekday.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
The risk of sectarian violence from Syria spilling into Iraq is increasing. A newly formed Shia group called the Ya Ali Popular Formations announced on March 11 that it has begun to pursue Jabhat al Nusra members and supporters around Baghdad.[1] The group is likely referring to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) members and supporters, given that Jabhat al Nusra was the predecessor group to HTS. The group then posted a video purportedly of masked individuals physically threatening Syrian nationals in a bakery in Baghdad.[2] The group expressed hope that others would emulate these actions throughout Iraq.[3] This comes after the group stated on March 9 that it would “pursue” and “expel” Syrians who support “[HTS] terrorism against the Alawite people and minorities.”[4] Social media accounts claimed that the group is affiliated with either the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).[5] CTP-ISW cannot verify these claims at the time of this writing. It is not clear exactly what end state the Ya Ali Popular Formations seeks to generate based on its statements thus far. The group may, in fact, seek to stoke sectarian conflict directly.
The Ya Ali Popular Formations’ activity comes at a particularly tense moment in the Iraqi political scene. Sunni parties have tried to relitigate their position in the Iraqi political order in recent weeks, specifically calling for the implementation of long-held political demands. Prominent Shia leaders, including former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, have responded harshly, using sectarian rhetoric and conflating Sunni parties with extremist groups.[6] Maliki implicitly accused Sunnis of trying to overthrow the Iraqi federal government.[7] The Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada secretary general, Abu Alaa al Walai, similarly compared some Sunni actors to the Islamic State after these actors criticized the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court for blocking certain legislation.[8] The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court suspended the implementation of the General Amnesty Law on February 4.[9] The General Amnesty Law grants amnesty to many Iraqis, including many Sunnis who were arrested under Article 4 of the Anti-Terrorism Law.[10] Several notable Sunnis, including former Parliament Speaker Mohamed al Halbousi pr...
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