China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 30, 2025

ISW - 30/01
The Taiwanese government has created a blacklist of 52 PRC-owned ships that warrant greater scrutiny to keep track of the PRC’s growing “shadow fleet” of ostensibly commercial vessels that act on behalf of the PRC. The Tokyo Memorandum of Understanding (M

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 30, 2025

Authors: Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, Alison O’Neil, Karina Wugang, and Frank Mattimoe of the Institute for the Study of War;

Alexis Turek and Yeji Chung of the American Enterprise Institute

Editors: Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute

Data Cutoff: January 28, 2025

The China–Taiwan Weekly Update is a joint product from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute. The update supports the ISW–AEI Coalition Defense of Taiwan project, which assesses Chinese campaigns against Taiwan, examines alternative strategies for the United States and its allies to deter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggression, and—if necessary—defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and cross–Taiwan Strait developments.

Key Takeaways  

  • New restrictions on Taiwan’s Constitutional Court procedures went into effect without a constitutional review after President William Lai Ching-te signed them into law. The amendments will paralyze the court’s ability to review laws until the Legislative Yuan (LY) approves new judicial nominees to fill vacant seats.
  • Constituents and political organizers in Taiwan have begun recall campaigns for 35 KMT legislators and 4 DPP legislators amid rising discord within the LY. Mass recalls of KMT legislators are unlikely to give the DPP control of the LY but could increase partisan infighting and anti-DPP sentiment in the opposition.
  • Taiwan indicted retired Lieutenant General Kao An-kuo and five others for organizing an armed group in collaboration with the CCP to aid the PLA in the event of an invasion against Taiwan. Kao is Taiwan's highest-ranked former military officer to be accused of espionage.
  • The Chinese Coast Guard and Philippines Coast Guard continued their standoff in the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone for the 4th week as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) “allowed” a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal and prevented Philippines fisheries bureau vessels from collecting sand samples at Sandy Cay for scientific research.
  • Anonymous security officials from two Western countries said that two Iranian-flagged cargo vessels will deliver over 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient in missile propellant, from the PRC to Iran in the next few weeks.

Cross-Strait Relations

Taiwan

New restrictions on Taiwan’s Constitutional Court procedures went into effect without a constitutional review after President William Lai Ching-te signed them into law. The amendments will paralyze the court’s ability to review laws until the Legislative Yuan (LY) approves new judicial nominees to fill vacant seats. Republic of China (ROC - Taiwan) President Lai signed amendments to the Constitutional Court Procedure Act (CCPA) into law on January 23. The law went into effect on January 25, though Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) requested a constitutional review and an injunction.[1] The new law requires at least 10 justices (out of a total of 15 seats on the court) to be present to hear a case, and at least nine of them to vote a law unconstitutional. The current court has only eight sitting justices, since the terms of seven justices expired in October. The LY rejected all of Lai’s nominees to fill the vacancies in December. The law will thus impede the court from striking down any legislation that the LY passes until the LY approves at least two new justices, removing the DPP’s last recourse for preventing the implementation of laws passed by the opposition-controlled legislature.

The Constitutional Court said that it was handling the case “in accordance with the law” and had not made a ruling as of January 24. “In accordance with the law” may mean that the court will not hear the case until it has at least 10 justices; the court did not clearly state this, however. A constitutional review of the new CCPA amendments without the requisite 10 justices would violate the new law and trigger a constitutional crisis in Taiwan.[2] The court can strike down the law in the future when it does have at least 10 justices, however. The current eight justices are all DPP appointees. The Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) thus have an incentive to continue blocking Lai’s judicial nominees as long as possible if they wish to remove the court as an obstacle to their legislative agenda, such as the large budget cuts they passed on January 21 – including to the defense budget – and the recall procedure amendments. Lai has yet to nominate replacement candidates for the court.

Both the paralysis of the court and the constitutional crisis that will ensue if it violates the law to make a ruling will increase the dysfunction in Taiwan’s government to the benefit of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The paralysis of the court will make the Lai administration unable to block major budget cuts and other obstacles to executive power that will hamper Taiwan’s ability to fund and operate its military, coast guard, and various civil defense initiatives which it uses to resist PRC coercion and infiltration. A constitutional crisis, on the other hand, will worsen the deep divisions between th...
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