Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans
By Kateryna Stepanenko
February 23, 2025
Executive Summary:
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a coordinated campaign in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society in Russia, likely out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return from Ukraine. The Kremlin launched several initiatives to co-opt loyalist veteran figures and form state-controlled veterans organizations in support of the permanent militarization of Russian society at the federal, regional, and local levels. The Kremlin seeks to silence voices capable of meaningfully objecting to the continuation of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine or questioning Russian government decisions. Putin is likely trying to avoid a modern analog to the veterans-based civil society born from the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Kremlin likely fears political instability such as what followed the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988-1989. It is falsely framing its current initiatives to co-opt veteran life as preventative measures against the reemergence of “Afghan syndrome” — a popular Russian term used to describe the aftermath of the Soviet government’s failure to reintegrate psychologically traumatized Soviet veterans into Russian society upon their return from Afghanistan.[1] It is thus using the cover of “preventing Afghan syndrome” as an excuse to prevent the emergence of civil society groups that could have credibility among the population as well as organizational ability but might not remain loyal to Putin himself or his decisions and actions.
The Kremlin’s decision to launch this campaign indicates that Putin fears the risks and challenges associated with reintegrating over 700,000 veterans into Russian society and thus remains unlikely to demobilize fully or rapidly — even in the event of a negotiated settlement to its war in Ukraine.[2] The United States and Ukraine’s allies must consider the Kremlin’s fear of emerging veteran civil society groups and demobilization when assessing Russia’s negotiating position and the requirements for enduring peace in Ukraine and Europe.
The Kremlin is intensifying a campaign launched in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society and an influx of alienated veterans in Russia likely because it perceives the demobilization of Russian veterans as a potential threat to regime stability. Putin officially declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland,” signaling the Kremlin’s growing commitment to expanding state control over veterans’ lives and civil society.[3] The Kremlin launched four specific main initiatives as part of this centralization campaign: the Defenders of the Fatherland State Fund in April 2023; the "Time of Heroes" Higher School of Public Administration in February 2024; the Association of ”Special Military Operation” (“SVO” — a Kremlin term for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine) Veterans in November 2023; and the "SVOi" Military Brotherhood movement in October 2024.[4] All four initiatives, described in detail below, are part of the Kremlin's coordinated campaign to ensure that veterans of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine do not form independent veterans-based civil society organizations upon their return to Russia and do not destabilize Russian society by failing to reintegrate into the community due to their war trauma, crime, and addiction. These initiatives allow the Kremlin to coopt and empower veterans who are loyal to the regime, establish state-controlled veterans organizations, purge and replace the current Russian elite that may have been growing more skeptical of the Kremlin's war effort, and restrict state funding of and support for other veterans groups that the Kremlin perceives to be disloyal. The Kremlin simultaneously enforced stricter censorship laws and suppressed key actors who resonated with Russian veterans to facilitate the formation of a state-run veterans' "civil society."
The Kremlin likely fears that it will face even worse political instability than what the Soviet Union experienced after its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988-1989 because of Russia’s failure to militarize and mobilize Russian society for a protracted war. Russian Presidential Administration First Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko allegedly stated in a closed meeting in July 2024 that Russian war veterans "adapt poorly" to civilian life after returning from Ukraine and that many convict recruits commit violent crimes after returning home.[5] Kiriyenko reportedly said that there will be "quite a lot" of veterans returning from the war in Ukraine and that increased crime committed by veterans could cause discontent, fear, or aggression towards veterans among Russian citizens. Kiriyenko observed that the demobilization of Russian veterans in Ukraine would be very different from the return of Soviet veterans after the Afghan War or World War II because Soviet society was deeply mobilized and overall better conditioned to support if not to wage conflict. Kiriyenko reportedly characterized contemporary Russian society as being unprepared to "understand and accept" veterans in the event of their demobilization. The Kremlin inadvertently created conditions in late February 2022 that ostracized Russian veterans by portraying Russia's full-scale invasion as a small war that only involved professional forces and did not impact most Russians.[6] This rhetoric aimed to shield broader Russian society from the implications of Russia's war against Ukraine, but in turn inadvertently created a divide between Russians impacted by the full-scale invasion and those who were not or had the privilege of ignoring the war.
The Kremlin is likely particularly concerned that veterans’ return could trigger a new wave of "Afghan syndrome" and the rise of new veterans groups critical of the Russian war effort or military.[7] "Afghan syndrome" is a popular Russian term used to describe the disillusionment that affected Soviet Afghan War veterans in the aftermath of the Soviet government’s failure to reintegrate psychologically traumatized Soviet veterans into Russian society upon their return from Afghanistan.[8] Many Soviet veterans felt alienated as the Soviet government did not provide them with adequat...
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