Iran Update, February 5, 2025
Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, Carolyn Moorman, Kelly Campa, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Annika Ganzeveld, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl
Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Iran is downplaying the significance of US “maximum pressure” sanctions while signaling some openness to nuclear negotiations with the West. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the maximum pressure policy is a “failed experiment” in response to US President Donald Trump’s announcing on February 4 his intent to re-enforce extensive sanctions on Iran.[1] Senior Iranian officials separately expressed willingness to engage in nuclear negotiations, emphasizing the Iranian policy against building and using nuclear weapons. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Director Mohammad Eslami similarly said that Iran has no plans to develop nuclear weapons.[2] An unspecified senior Iranian official told Reuters on February 5 that Iran is ready to give the United States a chance to resolve disputes.[3] Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ultimately will decide whether Iran negotiates with the West or tries to build a nuclear weapon, however. Trump said on February 5 that he would like to pursue a “verified nuclear peace agreement” with Iran “immediately.”[4]
Reuters reported on February 5 that Trump ordered his administration to work with allies to "complete the snapback of international sanctions and restrictions on Iran,” likely referring to discussions with the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) to trigger snapback sanctions on Iran.[5] The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.”[6] The E3 previously stated that it is prepared to impose snapback sanctions on Iran.[7] The E3 has until October 2025 to do so.[8]
The US Defense Department is preparing plans for the withdrawal of US service members from Syria.[9] No order has been given to proceed with the withdrawal at the time of this writing, however. A US withdrawal would severely undermine the counter-ISIS mission in Iraq and Syria and would create a vacuum that ISIS could exploit to reconstitute. SDF spokesperson Farhad Shami said on February 5 that ISIS is waiting for a US withdrawal to reactivate and restore its physical so-called “caliphate.”[10] Shami confirmed that the SDF had received no warning from the United States about plans to withdraw.[11]
A US withdrawal from Syria would very likely create opportunities for ISIS to rebuild itself in northeastern Syria in particular. The United States provides critical functions that enable the SDF to secure detention facilities in northeastern Syria that hold 10,000 ISIS fighters, whom US Central Command Commander General Michael Kurilla has called “an ISIS army-in-waiting.”[12] A US withdrawal from Syria would significantly increase the likelihood that the SDF would be unable to secure these ISIS fighters due to pressure from Turkey and Turkish-backed forces. The distraction and chaos caused by a US withdrawal from northeastern Syria would provide ISIS an opening to launch a major att...
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