China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 7, 2025

ISW - 07/03
Recall campaigns against 32 legislators in the KMT opposition advanced to the next stage. Successful recalls could shift the balance of power in the Taiwanese legislature to favor the ruling DPP.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 7, 2025

Authors: Matthew Sperzel, Alison O’Neil, and Karina Wugang of the Institute for the Study of War;

Alexis Turek and Yeji Chung of the American Enterprise Institute

Editors: Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Carl of the American Enterprise Institute

Data Cutoff: March 5, 2025

The China–Taiwan Weekly Update is a joint product from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute. The update supports the ISW–AEI Coalition Defense of Taiwan project, which assesses Chinese campaigns against Taiwan, examines alternative strategies for the United States and its allies to deter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggression, and—if necessary—defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and cross–Taiwan Strait developments.

Key Takeaways  

  • Taiwan. Recall campaigns against 32 legislators in the KMT opposition advanced to the next stage. Successful recalls could shift the balance of power in the Taiwanese legislature to favor the ruling DPP.
  • Taiwan. The PRC launched a sudden military exercise south of Taiwan likely as a coercive show of force. This follows similarly provocative PRC exercises near Vietnam, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • South Korea. Anti-PRC sentiments have surged in South Korea, following President Yoon Suk-yeol mentioning PRC espionage repeatedly in his impeachment trial. A leading presidential candidate reversed his pro-PRC position in response to this public frustration.
  • The Philippines. The Philippines arrested PRC nationals for espionage targeting military and government sites, including the presidential palace. This alleged espionage is part of the PRC’s and United Front’s clandestine activities in the Philippines.
  • Russia. PRC President Xi Jinping met Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in Beijing. The PRC in the meeting reaffirmed its strategic cooperation with Russia while trying to project an image of neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War

Cross-Strait Relations

Taiwan

The Taiwanese Central Election Commission (CEC) advanced 32 recall campaigns targeting Kuomintang (KMT) legislators. Successful recall campaigns against the KMT opposition could shift the balance of power in the Legislative Yuan (LY) in favor of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The CEC announced that 13 recall cases against KMT legislators have moved to the second stage and three recall cases against DPP legislators failed to gather enough signatures.[1] This announcement comes after 19 recall proposals for KMT legislators reached the second stage and nine recall proposals against DPP legislators failed to gather enough signatures at the end of February.[2] KMT legislators face a total of 32 recall motions in the second stage, while DPP legislators have no recall motions in the second stage of recall to date. DPP legislative caucus Chair Ker Chien-ming called for a mass recall campaign against opposition legislators on January 4. The KMT responded by launching its own recall campaigns against the DPP. [3] These results illustrate the low popularity of the KMT-initiated recall campaign in the wake of massive KMT-led government budget cuts. The second stage requires 10 percent of eligible voters in the relevant legislator’s district to sign the recall petition within 60 days — 10 times the number of signatures needed at the first stage — so it is unclear how many of the 32 recall motions will advance further in the coming months. Gathering signatures from 10 percent of eligible voters would trigger a special election in the relevant legislator’s district, providing the DPP an opportunity to win seats that the KMT currently holds.

The DPP would need to flip six seats and maintain its current seats for a simple majority of 57 seats. Winning 12 seats would yield the DPP a firm majority over all opposition parties in the LY. The LY is comprised of 113 members and currently has no majority party; the DPP holds 51 seats, the KMT holds 54 seats (including two KMT-aligned independents), and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) holds eight seats.[4] The KMT and TPP have recently aligned to gain majority control, obstructing DPP President William Lai Ching-te’s agenda through measures, such as passing a motion to slash the government budget by record levels in January 2025. The motion sought to cut some department budgets by over 90 percent. The large cuts to...
[Short citation of 8% of the original article]