Iran Update, February 11, 2025
Carolyn Moorman, Siddhant Kishore, Alexandra Braverman, Andie Parry, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Katherine Wells, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl
Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to resume military operations in the Gaza Strip if Hamas fails to release Israeli hostages on February 15.[1] Netanyahu made this announcement after he convened a security cabinet meeting on February 11 to discuss the second phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.[2] Hamas stated on February 10 that it would postpone the release of Israeli hostages, which would be a violation of the ceasefire agreement.[3] Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on February 10 to prepare for any “possible scenario” in the Gaza Strip.[4] The IDF deployed its 252nd Division to the buffer zone along the Israel-Gaza Strip boundary on February 11, bringing the total number of divisions there to three.[5] Hamas could use the remaining hostages to pressure Netanyahu to negotiate again if the IDF resumed operations in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas is trying to set informational conditions to be able to blame Israel for a potential breakdown of the ceasefire. Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on February 10 that Hamas’ decision to postpone the release of hostages is a “warning” to Israel.[6] Hamdan claimed that Hamas will comply with its ceasefire obligations so long as Israel fulfills its obligations. This statement seeks to preemptively blame any breakdown in the ceasefire on an alleged Israeli failure to fulfill its ceasefire obligations. Hamas has, however, itself violated the ceasefire agreement by postponing the release of Israeli hostages.
The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court rejected on February 11 recent lawsuits that sought to suspend the implementation of the General Amnesty Law.[7] The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court temporarily suspended the implementation of the General Amnesty Law, the Personal Status Law, and the Property Restitution Law on February 4 after several parliamentarians, including members of the Iranian-backed State of Law Coalition, submitted lawsuits to the Federal Supreme Court.[8] The General Amnesty Law grants amnesty to many Iraqis, including many Sunnis who were arrested under Article 4 of the Anti-Terrorism Law.[9] The Federal Supreme Court’s rejection of the lawsuits is notable given that the court has historically delivered rulings in favor of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and politicians.[10]
Iranian-backed Shia political parties will very likely continue to try to prevent the implementation of the General Amnesty Law, despite the court ruling. State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki stated on February 1 that “we will not allow terrorists to leave prisons,” in reference to the individuals who would be released from prison under the General Amnesty Law.[11] Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri has also previously expressed strong opposition to the General Amnesty Law.[12] These Iranian-backed militia leaders’ statements about the General Amn...
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