China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 27, 2025

Data Cutoff: March 25, 2025

The China–Taiwan Weekly Update is a joint product from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute. The update supports the ISW–AEI Coalition Defense of Taiwan project, which assesses Chinese campaigns against Taiwan, examines alternative strategies for the United States and its allies to deter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggression, and—if necessary—defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and cross–Taiwan Strait developments.

Key Takeaways

• Taiwan: Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te announced new nominees to the Constitutional Court to fill positions necessary to reach quorum for constitutional review. The court is the last institutional recourse to block opposition-supported budget cuts that would significantly undermine the Taiwanese ability to resist PRC coercion and attack.
• Taiwan. The PRC is continuing to develop its ability to cut undersea cables, which it could use to coerce and isolate Taiwan. A likely PRC-operated vessel entered Taiwanese waters likely in order to refuel other PRC vessels, including those involved in cable-cutting around Taiwan. The PRC is also developing additional technologies for cable-cutting, including some that are compatible with submarines.
• Taiwan: The Taiwanese coast guard expelled PRC fishing vessels illegally operating around Taiwan’s Pratas Island. The PRC likely used the vessels to assert its jurisdiction there. Pratas Island has strategic value, as it lies in the northern South China Sea and hosts an airfield and a Taiwanese coast guard base.
• Japan: The PRC deployed coast guard ships around the disputed Senkaku Islands for the longest continuous period to date. The operation coincided with PRC Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi visiting Tokyo for a trilateral Japan-South Korea-PRC summit, highlighting how the PRC combines diplomacy with coercion in its foreign policy.

Cross-Strait Relations

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te announced new nominees to the Constitutional Court to fill positions necessary to reach quorum for constitutional review. The court is the last institutional recourse to block opposition-supported budget cuts that would significantly undermine the Taiwanese ability to resist PRC coercion and attack. Lai on March 21 announced seven nominees for the vacancies on the Constitutional Court.[1] Lai’s nominees are Tsai Chiu-ming as president of the court, Su Su-o as vice president, and the following as other justices: Hsiao Wen-sheng, Cheng Chun-hui, Lin Li-ying, Chen Tzu-yang, and Chan Chen-jung.[2] Seven of 15 court seats have been vacant since November 2024, and the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan (LY) rejected Lai’s previous nominees in December 2024, almost entirely along party lines.[3] The LY passed an amendment to the Constitutional Court Procedure Act (CCPA) raising the quorum to 10 of 15 justices that same month, effectively paralyzing the court, as there are only eight justices currently.[4] Chairman of the minority Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Huang Kuo-chang already expressed concern that Lai’s nominee to lead the JY, Tsai Chiu-ming, would show bias toward the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), indicating that he will oppose Tsai’s nomination. United Daily News — a newspaper aligned with the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) — published an op-ed on Tsai’s “obvious unsuitability” on March 24, similarly indicating opposition to the nomination.[5]

The KMT-TPP coalition in the LY is incentivized to keep blocking judicial nominees, so that the court cannot block the coalition’s bills, such as the Constitutional Court reforms themselves and record large cuts to the central government budget. The Control Yuan (CY) — the branch of government responsible for government oversight — filed a petition on March 24 for the Constitutional Court to review the new budget on the grounds that it violates the separation of powers.[6] The petition states that the 96-percent cut to the CY will “severely endanger” its ability to perform its duties.[7] The budget cuts and freezes also constrain operations in government departments and agencies that are critical to Taiwanese national security, such as the National Defense Ministry, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Coast Guard Administration, and Mainland Affairs Council. These cuts conflict with Lai’s pledge to increase the defense budget from 2.45 percent to over three percent of GDP in the wake of US pressure for Taiwan to increase defense spending.[8] The government stated that it plans to use surplus funds to reach the defense spending target.[9] Auditor-General Chen Jui-min acknowledged the potential for borrowing funds to offset the budget cuts as well.[10]

The Taiwanese coast guard seized an unmarked fuel freighter with a likely PRC crew in the Taiwanese contiguous zone. The PRC likely uses such vessels to refuel other ships that operate illegally in Taiwanese-administered waters, such as ships that are involved in sabotaging undersea cables. The Taiwanese Coast Guard Administration (CGA) on March 24 detained a likely PRC fuel freighter 20 nautical miles off the coast of Hsinchu within Taiwan’s northwestern contiguous zone. The freighter had no name, certificate, or port of registry (criteria which Taiwan calls the “Three Nos”), and unsuccessfully attempted to flee rather than comply with CGA inspection. The CGA stated that the six crewmembers of the ship that it detained appeared to be Chinese but did not carry identification documents. The boat had about 500,000 lite...
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