Iran Update, January 25, 2025
Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn Moorman, Johanna Moore, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, and Nicholas Carl
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Israel announced on January 25 that it will prevent Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip because Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement.[1] Hamas released four female Israeli soldiers as part of the second hostage release on January 25.[2] Israel accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire agreement by releasing female soldiers before female civilians.[3] Israel announced that it will only fulfill its requirement to allow Palestinians to move to the northern part of the strip once Hamas releases female civilian hostage Arbel Yehud, whom Israel expected to be released on January 25.[4] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is holding Yehud in the Gaza Strip.[5] A Hamas official said that Yehud is alive and will be released during the next hostage release on February 1.[6] Israeli media reported that talks are underway to expedite Yehud’s release.[7] A US National Security Council official told Axios that the United States is ”continuing to push” for Yehud’s release ”through negotiation channels.”[8] Israel released 200 Palestinian prisoners, including 120 who were serving life sentences for killing Israelis, into the West Bank, Egypt, and the Gaza Strip as part of the hostage-prisoner release on January 25.[9]
CTP-ISW has recorded no verifiable reports of kinetic activity in the Gaza Strip or attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel since the last data cut off on January 24.
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) tried to attack the Sayyidah Zeynab shrine in Damascus, which a prominent Shia religious site, likely in order to stoke sectarian tensions in Syria. The Washington Post, citing informed officials, reported that the United States has shared intelligence with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) to thw...
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