Iran Update, March 11, 2025
Johanna Moore, Carolyn Moorman, Siddhant Kishore, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Annika Ganzeveld, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update every weekday.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
The Syrian interim government has taken initial steps to prosecute individuals who committed crimes during recent insurgent activity in western Syria between March 6 and 10. Interim government forces arrested five individuals on March 11 for committing extrajudicial killings.[1] Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara acknowledged accusations that interim government-affiliated forces committed extrajudicial killings and promised that the interim government would hold those who “exceeded the powers of the state” accountable during a speech on March 9.[2] Interim government raids targeting former Assad regime members since December 2024 have fueled reports of revenge-based attacks and harassment, particularly against the Alawite community.[3] The interim government will need to take concrete action and ensure a fair legal process, including charging, prosecuting, and sentencing perpetrators of sectarian violence, in order to demonstrate that the state is willing and able to protect minority communities. Prosecuting perpetrators of sectarian violence will enable the interim government to restore trust among Syrians, particularly Alawites, and could undercut any insurgent recruitment efforts.
Pro-Assad insurgent cells remain active in western Syria following the conclusion of interim government clearing operations. The commander of the pro-Assad Coastal Shield Brigade, Mikdad Fatiha, posted a video of himself traveling near Safita Dam, Tartus Province.[4] Fatiha‘s ability to move relatively freely in Syrian coastal areas demonstrates that insurgents feel relatively safe moving around the countryside by road and do not fear government patrols or checkpoints. Checkpoints are commonly established on major roads and not on small roads and trails that local fighters may be aware of and can use to bypass checkpoints. Static checkpoints also do not destroy an insurgent force and usually fail to protect civilian populations.
Qardaha and its surrounding neighborhoods may be support zones for the pro-Assad insurgency. Interim government forces evacuated residents from Salata, Latakia Province, on March 11 following intense fighting between pro-Assad fighters and interim government forces in the area.[5] Salata is around two kilometers west of Qardaha, which is Bashar al Assad’s hometown and a former Assad regime stronghold.[6] Former Assad regime members have conducted periodic attacks targeting interim government forces since at least January 2025.[7] Qardaha...
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