Iran Update, January 17, 2025
Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Ben Rezaei, Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
The Israeli security cabinet approved the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal on January 17.[1] Israel’s full cabinet began deliberating on the deal on January 17 but has not released a decision on it as of the time of this writing. The full cabinet will very likely approve the deal, given that the security cabinet recommended the deal’s approval.[2] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the cabinet that the United States promised to support Israel resuming the war in the Gaza Strip if the second phase of ceasefire negations fail or Israel’s security demands are not met, according to a Netanyahu aide speaking to Axios on January 17.[3]
The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19.[4] The Israeli government reportedly believes that most of the 33 hostages that Hamas will release in the first phase of the deal are alive, but Hamas has not confirmed a list of living and dead hostages.[5] An Israeli official told Axios on January 17 that Israel will not release the list of the Palestinian prisoners it will release under the deal until Hamas shares this information.[6] Israeli media correspondents reported on January 17 that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) created three forward reception points on the border of the Gaza Strip to receive the hostages.[7] The hostages will also receive immediate support from the IDF, doctors, and mental health professionals upon their release.
Israeli officials and media detailed the IDF’s planned withdrawal from the Gaza Strip under the ceasefire deal on January 17.[8] Israeli media correspondents confirmed that the IDF 99th Division will gradually withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor during the ceasefire’s first phase, while the IDF 162nd Division will secure the area north of the Gaza Strip. The 99th Division deployed to the central Gaza Strip in early November 2024 to replace the 252nd Division.[9] The 162nd Division deployed to the northern Gaza Strip in early October 2024.[10] The media correspondents also confirmed that the IDF 143rd Division will secure the southern Gaza Strip and gradually withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor.[11] A senior Israeli official confirmed on January 16 that the IDF will remain in the Philidelphi Corridor beyond the first phase of the agreement until Israel achieves its war objectives.[12]
An Israeli official told Axios that Qatari and Egyptian officials will ensure no heavy weaponry enter the area.[13] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent contradicted the Axios reporting and claimed on January 17 that an American security company would inspect civilians returning to the northern Gaza Strip in vehicles.[14] Displaced Gazans will begin to return to the northern Gaza Strip during the first phase of the deal.[15]
Both Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement ceased military operations against Israel after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which underscores that the October 7 War was a regional conflict between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel. All elements of the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthi movement, began their offensive in support of Hamas against Israel’s response to Hamas’s October 7 attack.[16] The opening attacks by the Houthis, the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah were de-facto declarations of war against Israel that escalated and regionalized the war. Hezbollah only made a separate peace with Israel after the IDF compelled it to do so by defeating Hezbollah militarily.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias officially suspended attacks against Israel after the ceasefire. Iranian-backed Iraqi attacks against Israel stopped in November 2024, following Israeli threats. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba Secretary-General Akram al Kaabi announced the suspension of Iraqi militia attacks against Israel on January 15 and warned that the militias will react harshly to any Israeli “foolishness.”[17] Kataib Sarkhat al Quds similarly threatened that Iraqi militias would respond “forcefully” to any Israeli actions against Palestinian rights.[18] Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba and Kataib Sarkhat al Quds are part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[19] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq consistently launched drone strikes that targeted Israel between February to November 2024.[20] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq dramatically increased its rate of attacks against Israel in September and October 2024.[21] This attack increase spurred the United States and Israel to warn the Iraqi government in early November 2024 that the IDF would potentially attack targets in Iraq if Iran...
[Short citation of 8% of the original article]