China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 14, 2025

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 14, 2025

Authors: Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, Alison O’Neil, Karina Wugang, and Kiley Pittman of the Institute for the Study of War;

Alexis Turek and Yeji Chung of the American Enterprise Institute

Editors: Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Carl of the American Enterprise Institute

Data Cutoff: March 11, 2025

The China–Taiwan Weekly Update is a joint product from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute. The update supports the ISW–AEI Coalition Defense of Taiwan project, which assesses Chinese campaigns against Taiwan, examines alternative strategies for the United States and its allies to deter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggression, and—if necessary—defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and cross–Taiwan Strait developments.

Key Takeaways

• Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is trying to leverage its influence in friendly countries to persecute pro-independence Taiwanese nationals who live or travel there, according to an internal Taiwanese government memo.
• Taiwan. Taiwanese celebrities circulated PRC propaganda that framed Taiwan as a PRC province, demonstrating how the PRC coopts media and prominent personalities to conduct information operations, especially targeting the international community and Taiwanese people.
• Taiwan. The PRC sent 11 high-altitude balloons into the Taiwanese ADIZ, marking a record high of balloon intrusions in a single day. The PRC likely uses the balloons to collect intelligence on items of military significance around Taiwan and to degrade Taiwan’s threat awareness.
• PRC. The US Justice Department unsealed indictments against 12 PRC nationals for their involvement in “global computer intrusion campaigns” targeting US public and private entities. These indictments highlight the PRC practice of contracting hackers to access and steal private data.
• Australia. PLA Navy vessels circumnavigated Australia following unprecedented and provocative exercises in the Tasman Sea. The PRC is likely trying to intimidate Australia while expanding its naval presence in the South Pacific. The PRC may have also conducted intelligence gathering operations during the transit.
• Russia. The PRC is trying to present itself to Europe as a reasonable alternative to the United States in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The PRC effort to play a key mediating role is unlikely to succeed due to Beijing’s continued support for Russia, however.

Cross-Strait Relations

Taiwan

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is trying to leverage its influence in friendly countries to persecute pro-independence Taiwanese nationals who live or travel there, according to an internal Taiwanese government memo. The memo claimed that the PRC ordered its embassies and unofficial police stations in friendly countries to take unspecified actions against “separatist” elements. The memo specifically claimed that the PRC produced the orders during a meeting of the annual Taiwan Work Conference in February 2025, which was led by senior PRC official Wang Huning. Wang is the deputy head of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, making him the most senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official responsible for Taiwan policy after Xi Jinping. Taiwanese officials warned in the memo that PRC-friendly countries could thus allow PRC agents to detain and intimidate Taiwanese nationals. Taiwan is reportedly considering issuing travel alerts for Cambodia, Laos, and some African countries due to these risks.[1]

The PRC activities that the memo described mark an expansion of the PRC effort to suppress and threaten pro-independence Taiwanese nationals. The PRC issued new guidance in June 2024 on how the state should prosecute and punish “separatist” Taiwanese elements under its 2005 Anti-Secession Law.[2] The PRC proceeded to convict the first Taiwanese national on charges of secessionism in August 2024, sentencing him to nine years in prison.[3] The PRC Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) separately expanded its public list of “Taiwan independence diehards” in October 2024 to include twelve prominent individuals from or aligned with Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), including the current vice president and defense minister. The PRC orders to persecute Taiwanese nationals abroad, including students, tourists, and residents of foreign countries, disproves previous PRC claims that the new guidelines for prosecution and punishment only apply to a small minority of “diehard separatists.”[4]

The role of unofficial PRC police stations in enforcing these guidelines abroad highlights the clandestine and subversive networks that the PRC has established abroad, including in the United States. These stations operate under the guise of consular service offices. The PRC runs these stations often without consent from the host countries and uses the stations for coercion and espionage.[5] Some countries, such as Thailand, enable these PRC activities and even allow the PRC to use the stations to extradite PRC nationals without regard for due process.[6]

Taiwanese celebrities circulated PRC propaganda that framed Taiwan as a PRC province, demonstrating how the PRC coopts Taiwanese media and prominent personalities to conduct information operations. At least 18 Taiwanese celebrities posted a graphic that PRC state media published and had text saying, “Taiwan has never been a country, was not one in the past, and it will be even more impossible [for it to become one] in the future.”[7] The graphic also said that “Taiwan’s only title is ‘Taiwan Province, China’.” The graphic echoed similar rhetoric from PRC Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi on March 7.[8]

The PRC likely coordinated with these Taiwanese celebrities to post this graphic in order to delegitimize Taiwanese sovereignty and promote a false narrative of overwhelming public support for reunification. The PRC is likely using this information operation to target international audiences and the Taiwanese people, especially Taiwanese youth. The celebrities posted the graphic all arou...
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