Iran Update, April 15, 2025
Alexandra Braverman, Ben Rezaei, Siddhant Kishore, Katherine Wells, Carolyn Moorman, Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, and Annika Ganzeveld
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update every weekday.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may calculate that engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States is the best option for preserving the Iranian regime's stability. Khamenei discussed the United States-Iran nuclear talks and economic priorities during a meeting with senior Iranian government officials on April 15.[1] Khamenei called for mitigating the impact of international sanctions on the Iranian economy while simultaneously expressing support for nuclear talks with the United States. Khamenei’s main priority is preserving the Iranian regime. The New York Times reported on April 11 that President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf convinced Khamenei to approve nuclear talks with the United States to avoid a potential “two-front war” against both external military threats and internal unrest.[2] Khamenei may calculate that engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States will improve Iranian economic conditions and prevent a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Senior Iranian officials have recently expressed concern that Iran’s worsening economic conditions could cause internal unrest.[3] Khamenei would likely be skeptical of any agreement that Iran signs with the Trump administration, however, given that US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Khamenei stated that Iran must “proceed carefully” in the negotiations with the United States and emphasized Iran’s distrust toward the United States during the meeting with government officials.
Khamenei also likely seeks to manage domestic expectations about the possibility of Iran reaching a nuclear agreement with the United States. Khamenei cautioned against both "excessive optimism and pessimism" and stressed that Iran’s progress must continue “independently of the negotiations” during his meeting with government officials.[4] Khamenei's cautious position may seek to protect the regime from internal backlash if the talks fail or produce only limited economic benefits.
US President Donald Trump discussed the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran with senior US foreign policy and national security officials on April 15.[5] The United States and Iran began nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman, on April 12.[6] Axios reported on April 15 that there is “intense debate” in the administration about the trajectory of the talks and potential US compromises. Unspecified individuals briefed on the talks told the Wall Street Journal on April 14 that the Trump administration intends to discuss Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance with Iran but that “the topic didn’t come up for discussion” on April 12.[7] Iranian sources previously stated that Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei included demands that Iran curtail its support for the Axis of Resistance.[8] Iran and the Axis of Resistance have conducted an information operation targeting the West in recent weeks that seeks to obfuscate Iran’s role in leading the Axis of Resistance.[9] This campaign likely seeks to set conditions for Iran to argue during negotiations that it has already distanced itself from the Axis of Resistance. This informational campaign is part of a long-running Iranian campaign that seeks to obfuscate Iran’s support for its proxies and absolve Iran of responsibility for its proxies’ actions. Iran and the United States are scheduled to hold a second round of talks in Muscat, Oman, on April 19.[10]
US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff stated in an interview on April 14 that Iran...
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