Iran Update, April 21, 2025
Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Siddhant Kishore, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, and Annika Ganzeveld
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update every weekday.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Iran and the United States held a second round of nuclear talks in Rome on April 19.[1] The New York Times reported that Iran and the United States agreed on an agenda for “rapid-paced negotiations” during the talks on April 19.[2] Fast-paced negotiations would not necessarily indicate that Iran and the United States have made progress toward resolving outstanding issues, such as Iranian uranium enrichment levels. Iranian officials told the New York Times that the “rapid-paced negotiations” would not require Iran to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. Iranian officials have emphasized in recent days that Iran is willing to reduce its uranium enrichment but have rejected demands to completely dismantle the Iranian nuclear program.[3]
Senior US, Iranian, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials conducted a series of meetings on the sidelines of the nuclear talks in Rome. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi met with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Rome on April 19.[4] Grossi previously met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 and17 to discuss technical issues and the US-Iran talks.[5] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi also met with Italian Foreign Affairs Minister Antonio Tajani in Rome on April 19.[6] Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was reportedly in Rome at the time of the talks..[7] Dermer and Witkoff met in Paris on April 18.[8]
Iran and the United States plan to hold technical-level discussions in Muscat, Oman, on April 23, followed by a third round of high-level talks in Muscat on April 26.[9] The New York Times reported that the technical-level talks will focus on the maximum level to which Iran could enrich uranium and mechanisms for monitoring and verifying Iranian compliance with a nuclear agreement.[10] The Wall Street Journal reported on April 19 that major intelligence gaps remain in the IAEA’s understanding of Iran’s nuclear program.[11] Iran’s removal of monitoring equipment and limits on inspector access in recent years has contributed to these intelligence gaps.[12]
The US Department of Defense will reduce the number of US forces deployed in Syria to "less than a thousand US forces” in the coming months.[13] Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell announced on April 18 that the reduction of troops will be a “deliberate and conditions-based process.”[14] The United States maintained roughly 900 US personnel in Syria between 2019 and 2024, when the United States increased the number of troops to 2,000 US personnel.[15] Two senior US officials told the New York Times on April 17 that the United States will close three bases in Syria, including Mission Support Site Green Village and Mission Support Site Euphrates.[16] Both bases have enabled US forces to support Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) counter-ISIS operations along the Euphrates River in zones where ISIS cells operate. A full US withdrawal from Syria would severely undermine the counter-ISIS mission in Iraq and Syria and would create a vacuum that ISIS could exploit to reconstitute. Parnell said that US Central Command (CENTCOM) will remain “poised” to conduct airstrikes targeting ISIS members in Syria and will continue to support coalition partners to degrade ISIS.[17] Parnell called on the international community to repatriate their nationals from detention camps in northeastern Syria.[18]
Anti-Assad groups appear to be conducting acts of vigilante justice in response to the Syrian transitional government’s failure to prosecute and hold accountable former Assad regime officials. A group of Aleppo-based former opposition fighters formed a “task force” on April 21 to kill former Assad regime members.[19] A Syrian source claimed that the group has begun tracking former regime members in Aleppo Province.[20] A former opposition fighter killed a former Syrian Arab Army (SAA) sniper in Talkalakh, Homs Province, on April 20.[21] The opposition fighter claimed that he had filed a complaint with the government that accused the sniper of killing his rela...
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