China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 27, 2025
Authors: Matthew Sperzel, Alison O’Neil, and Karina Wugang of the Institute for the Study of War;
Alexis Turek and Yeji Chung of the American Enterprise Institute
Editors: Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Carl of the American Enterprise Institute
Data Cutoff: February 27, 2025
The China–Taiwan Weekly Update is a joint product from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute. The update supports the ISW–AEI Coalition Defense of Taiwan project, which assesses Chinese campaigns against Taiwan, examines alternative strategies for the United States and its allies to deter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggression, and—if necessary—defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and cross–Taiwan Strait developments.
Key Takeaways
Cross-Strait Relations
Taiwan
The Taiwanese Central Election Commission (CEC) approved recall votes for 19 Kuomintang (KMT) legislators, which could diminish the influence of the opposition parties in the Legislative Yuan (LY). The CEC announced on February 26 that recalls against the 19 legislators will proceed to the second stage, which entails the collection of signatures in the legislator’s respective constituencies over 60 days.[1] A recall vote occurs if at least 10 percent of eligible voters sign. The third stage requires a majority vote with a voter turnout of at least 25 percent of that constituency’s eligible voters.[2] Supporters of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are more likely to vote in legislator recall campaigns than supporters of the opposition KMT or Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), according to a poll conducted by Taiwanese media outlet Mirror Media.[3] The 19 approved recall cases are all targeting KMT legislators, while the nine cases against DPP legislators failed to reach the threshold to move to the next stage.[4] The CEC announced February 27 that it had received a total of 54 recall motions against legislators.[5] The 19 approved cases consisted of those proposals that were submitted on the earliest possible date of February 3. The CEC will review recall vote proposals for other legislators submitted after February 3 in the coming days.[6]
DPP legislative caucus Chair Ker Chien-ming called for a mass recall campaign against opposition legislators on January 4 amid increasing partisan disunity and the KMT's and TPP’s passage of controversial legislation.[7] That legislation included extensive cuts to the central government budget, which threatened to compromise Taiwan’s resilience against PRC influence and coercion. The KMT responded to recall efforts against it by launching its own recall campaigns against the DPP.[8]
The LY currently has no majority party with the DPP holding 51 seats, the KMT holding 54 (including two KMT-aligned independents), and the TPP holding eight. The KMT and TPP hold a majority in practice, however, given their recent alignment on key issues. A DPP net gain of six seats would earn them a simple majority, while a net gain of at least 12 seats would give the DPP more seats than the opposition, improving their ability to pass legislation in line with the stated goals of President William Lai Ching-te.
DPP legislators are trying to counter KMT- and TPP-led efforts to enforce amendments to the Recall Act that would raise identification requirements for recall petition signatures. The amendments required that citizens provide photocopies of their national ID cards--instead of their ID numbers and addresses--in order to initiate and sign a recall petition.[9] The DPP requested an injunction and constitutional interpretation from the Constitutional Court on February 20 in order to prevent the recall amendments, which President Lai promulgated as required by the constitution on February 18, from taking effect.[10] Ker stated that such an injunction is necessary to “maintain constitutional order,” as Taiwan’s constitution gives citizens the right to recall.[11]
Taiwan’s Executive Yuan (EY) vetoed the LY’s budget bill, which contains drastic budget cuts that risk compromising Taiwan’s ability to resist People’s Republic of China (PRC) coercion. Republic of China (ROC) Premier Cho Jung-tai said on February 27 that the EY will veto the fiscal year 2025 budget and fiscal law amendment bill due to the their violating the separation of powers of the different branches of government, undermining Taiwan’s constitution, infringing on the people’s rights, affecting the operation of Taiwan’s democratic government, and weakening the country financially.[12] Cho said that President Lai Ching-te would approve the veto before submitting the controversial budget bill back to the LY.
The budget cuts would be the largest in Taiwan’s history and include reductions of up to 40 percent of some ministries’ total operating budgets. The DPP-controlled government ordered the LY to review the budget after KMT and TPP legislators passed it on January 21.[13] The LY completed its review of the budget on February 19, leaving it unchanged.[14] The total amounts of budget cuts and freezes are unclear because legislators made overlapping cuts during different phases of review.[15] The government’s request for the LY to review the budget was likely primarily aimed at delaying the budget cuts, while recall efforts against KMT legislators progress. President Lai Ching-te convened a meeting on February 10 between the heads of the branches of government, including KMT LY Speaker Han Kuo-yu, in an unsuccessful attempt to reconcile party differences and dissuade the KMT from proceeding with harmful legislation.[16]
The veto also applies to a fiscal planning law that was passed on December 20, 2024, and would redirect 40 percent of Taiwan’s total t...
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