Africa File Special Edition: M23 March Threatens Expanded Conflict in DR Congo and Regional War in the Great Lakes
Author: Liam Karr
Contributor: Yale Ford
Data Cutoff: January 30, at 5 p.m.
Editor's Note: The Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute publishes these updates with support from the Institute for the Study of War.
The Africa File provides regular analysis and assessments of major developments regarding state and nonstate actors’ activities in Africa that undermine regional stability and threaten US personnel and interests.
Key Takeaway: Rwandan-backed M23 rebels captured Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, which marks the most significant escalation in the conflict in the eastern DRC since the group last seized Goma in 2012. The group will seek to consolidate control over Goma, nearby mineral-rich areas, and the surrounding supply lines. The war in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will likely continue to escalate in the short term because M23’s military gains have not forced the DRC to agree to negotiations with M23, and Rwanda is better positioned to deter potential sanctions that caused it to cut its vital support for M23 in 2012. M23 and its Rwandan backers are likely trying to maximize their leverage with the DRC in negotiations and will continue advancing along three axes in the eastern DRC in the absence of an agreement that addresses their maximalist negotiation stance. Some members of M23 and its broader political coalition have signaled that they seek regime change in Kinshasa, which is a threat that would expand the war far across the DRC. The conflict could become a full-blown regional war given Burundi’s current support for the DRC and Uganda’s alleged support for M23. The war is continuing to cause a humanitarian crisis for hundreds of thousands of Congolese refugees in the eastern DRC.
Rwandan-backed M23 rebels captured Goma, which marks the most significant escalation in the conflict in the eastern DRC since the group last seized the provincial capital in 2012. The group will seek to consolidate control over Goma, nearby mineral-rich areas, and the surrounding supply lines. M23 captured Goma between January 26 and 28 after a series of offensives and counteroffensives against Congolese forces that began in December 2024. M23 launched concerted offensives in the Lubero and Masisi districts in December.[1] Congolese forces eventually halted the rebel group’s offensive in Lubero on December 24, but M23 captured Masisi town in early January 2025.[2] M23 then took several key towns on Lake Kivu on January 21 after a failed Congolese army (FARDC) counteroffensive to secure key supply lines that connect Goma and the Masisi district in mid-January.[3] UN troops and soldiers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) initially supported the FARDC against M23 but retreated into a defensive posture after the multilateral forces suffered significant casualties, including the deaths of 17 South African soldiers.[4]
Figure 1. M23 Advances in Eastern DRC
Note: The UN reports that 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan troops are fighting alongside M23 in the eastern DRC and “de facto control” M23 operations.
Source: Liam Karr; Armed Conflict Location and Event Data.
The UN and several countries report that Rwandan forces have been supporting M23 and were directly involved in the fighting in Goma. The UN reported in December 2024 that Rwanda already had 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan troops in the eastern DRC fighting alongside M23.[5] The United States condemned Rwanda on December 20 for continuing to provide artillery, troop reinforcements, and resupply convoys to the rebel group as it advanced toward Lubero.[6] DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner and UN officials in northern Goma said on January 26 that Rwandan reinforcements had entered the Goma area from the border with Rwanda in recent days.[7] French media reported the presence of Rwandan special forces in Goma and said that Kigali had deployed an additional 500 to 1,000 troops to support M23 in its offensive.[8]
Figure 2. M23 Advances Toward Goma and Masisi
Note: The UN reports that 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan troops are fighting alongside M23 in eastern DRC and “de facto control” M23 operations.
Source: Liam Karr; Armed Conflict Location and Event Data.
M23 seeks to set up an administration to govern Goma as it has in other areas under its control in the eastern DRC.[9] The UN reported in December 2024 that cadres from M23 and their broader political coalition, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), “systematically held meetings in newly conquered territories to promote its narrative, recruit new members, and consolidate parallel administration.”[10] AFC-M23 signaled they would apply the same strategy when AFC chief Corneille Nangaa held a press conference, declaring “we are not leaving Goma city, and we are here to stay.”[11] Past efforts in AFC-M23-seized zones included sophisticated, “state-like” administrations in key areas, such as mineral-rich areas around Rubaya.[12] The administration in Rubaya involved a mining ministry that award...
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