Iran Update, March 10, 2025
Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, Ben Rezaei, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, Alexandra Braverman, Siddhant Kishore, Carolyn Moorman, Bailey Pasternak, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update every weekday.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Current Syrian interim government counterinsurgency operations are insufficient to defeat pro-Assad insurgent cells across Syria. Interim government forces launched major counterinsurgent operations in former regime strongholds between March 7 and 10.[1] These operations have coincided with a decrease in insurgent activity but insurgent cells have continued attacks on interim government forces while expanding attacks across Tartous Province.[2] The decrease in rate of insurgent attacks during major counterinsurgent operations is more likely due to insurgents withdrawing from an area for the duration of the operation rather than a reflection of the operation’s success in destroying cells. There have been few engagements between insurgents and Syrian government forces during these large-scale counterinsurgent operations, suggesting that the insurgents are lying low and avoiding contact. Counterinsurgency operations require that security forces maintain their presence in an area to control it and prevent insurgents from reestablishing their connections with their support base.[3] The interim government announced Syrian forces began to withdraw from western Syria after successfully pushing insurgents out of city centers.[4] Interim government forces established approximately 150 checkpoints to prevent the movement of fighters. Checkpoints alone will not defeat the insurgency, because checkpoints are commonly placed on major thoroughfares and not the sorts of small roads and trails that are known to local fighters and can easily bypass checkpoints. Static checkpoints also do not destroy the insurgent force and usually fail to protect the population.[5]
The interim Syrian government has not addressed outstanding grievances within the Alawite community. Damascus will need to address these grievances to build the stability and confidence in government institutions necessary to defeat the insurgency. A unit within the interim government forces was removed from counterinsurgency operations over the weekend after committing extrajudicial killings but was not appropriately detained and reportedly proceeded to commit additional acts of violence against the civilian population.[6] Interim Syrian President Ahmed al Shara gave a speech on March 9 in which he briefly acknowledged accusations of extrajudicial killings by HTS-led forces and promised that those who “exceeded the powers of the state” will be held accountable.[7] Shara also appointed two Alawites and several competent, professional judges to a committee to investigate the crimes committed by government troops, which is a notable step towards ameliorating sectarian concerns.[8] Government forces have arrested some of those responsible for extrajudicial killings.[9] Interim government raids targeting former Assad regime members since December 2024 have fueled reports of revenge-based attacks and harassment, particularly against the Alawite community.[10] Failure to hold perpetrators of extrajudicial killings during the recent clearing operations accountable will exacerbate fears within the community that government forces are targeting civilians.
The violence in coastal Syria has prompted calls for sectarian violence in Iraq. A new group called the Ya Al...
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