Iran Update April 9, 2025
Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, Carolyn Moorman, Katherine Wells, Andie Parry, Siddhant Kishore, Ben Rezaei, and Annika Ganzeveld
Information Cutoff 2:00pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update every weekday.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Iran and the Axis of Resistance are continuing to conduct an information operation targeting the West ahead of “high-level” talks between Iran and the United States on April 12. This campaign likely seeks to set conditions for Iran to argue during the negotiations that it is distancing itself from the Axis of Resistance, which is reportedly a US demand.[1] A senior Hezbollah official told Reuters on April 9 that Hezbollah is willing to discuss disarmament with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.[2] Iranian media separately argued on April 9 that the United States must negotiate with Axis of Resistance groups directly because these groups operate "independently.”[3] These reports follow similar reports in recent days that claimed that Iran is reducing its support for the Houthis and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[4] This informational campaign is part of a long-running Iranian campaign that seeks to obfuscate Iranian support for its proxies and absolve Iran of responsibility for its proxies’ actions.
Iran is continuing to support the Axis of Resistance despite its claims to English-language media that it is reducing support for its proxies and partners.[5] Iran has financially supported the military reconstitution of Lebanese Hezbollah since the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire went into effect in November 2024.[6] UK-based outlet The Times reported on April 9 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force sent advanced missiles to unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in early April 2025.[7] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia sources separately told Emirati media on April 9 that the militias disagree about whether to disarm.[8] This report refutes earlier statements made by members of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to Western media on April 7 that the militias had agreed to disarm.[9] CTP-ISW continues to assess that Iran is unlikely to abandon its support for the Axis of Resistance as it serves as a key component of Iran’s long-standing regional strategy and deterrence against the United States and Israel.
Iran has continued to reject demands to fully dismantle its nuclear program. Some senior US and Israeli officials have recently called for the complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program.[10] IRGC-affiliated media published an article on April 9 stating that Iran could agree to reduce its uranium enrichment but would "retain enrichment for non-weapons needs."[11] Iran currently has enough 60 percent enriched uranium, if enriched further, to produce six nuclear weapons.[12] Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani stated on April 9 that Iran's network of nuclear facilities and technology is "stabilized, irreversible, and indestructible."[13] An unspecified Iranian official similarly told Western media that the Iranian nuclear...
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